BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Season call nowcast: expected curtailment / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_1210

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

candidateHARRIMAN DITCH →

HARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~111 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.

Priority
64.3
composite 0–100
Raw score
77.6
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.70
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.30
urgency0.85
confidence0.70
freshness0.90
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0900731
state
CO
county
JEFFERSON
admin_no
9222
division
1
latitude
39.652632
right_id
0900731-9222.00000
longitude
-105.187501
county_fips
08059
identifiers
{"wdid":"0900731"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
BEAR CREEK
seniority_rank
4031
structure_name
HARRIMAN DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
9
decreed_rate_cfs
30.064
score_components
{"swe_pct_median":61,"condition_class":"severe","dominant_caller":"PIONEER UNION DITCH","p_call_by_jun15":0.67,"comparable_seasons":5,"expected_curtailment_days":111}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1875-04-01
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_1210
record
0900731-9222.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~131 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.84.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~131 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.84.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~131 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.84.0
78Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 93% in median years → 71% dry → 39% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.1
78Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 93% in median years → 71% dry → 39% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.1
78Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 93% in median years → 71% dry → 39% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.1
73Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~127 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.82.7
73Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac industrial parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.95.1
73Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.95.1
73Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.95.1
73Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.95.1
73Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.95.1
70Basin chokepoint callerHARRIMAN DITCH has put 710 decreed rights (345 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 157,512.4 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 23.5.23.5
68Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac industrial parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.95.1
67Augmentation condition not verifiedHARRIMAN DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.76.7
65Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 93% in median years → 72% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
65Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.94.7
64Underused water asset290.912 ac (JEFFERSON County, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on HARRIMAN DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
60Critical caller value-at-riskHARRIMAN DITCH's observed call reaches 129 parcels — 1,109 coverage-weighted acres, $6.0M assessed value, 65 distinct owners — through the 541 structures it has put out of priority (157,512.4 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).57.4
60Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~105 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.75.7
60Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~115 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.78.9
60Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~127 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.82.7
60Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~111 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.77.6
59Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~131 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.84.0
59Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHARRIMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~111 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller PIONEER UNION DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 5 comparable seasons.77.6
58Underused water asset221.062 ac (JEFFERSON County, FOOTHILLS PARK & RECREATION DISTRICT): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on HARRIMAN DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
58Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac industrial parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.85.4
55Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10913506 (216 ac, ALFALFA, served by HARRIMAN DITCH) now spans 5 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 5 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
54Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10913507 (196 ac, ALFALFA, served by HARRIMAN DITCH) now spans 78 parcels held by 73 owner(s) — 78 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
54Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 94% in median years → 75% dry → 48% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.68.4
53Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac industrial parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.79.1
53Decree-to-current-use conflict1.214 ac residential parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.77.9
52Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 93% in median years → 71% dry → 39% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.1
52Underused water asset134.978 ac (JEFFERSON County, JEFFERSON COUNTY): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on HARRIMAN DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
52Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 93% in median years → 72% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
52Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10913508 (152 ac, ALFALFA, served by HARRIMAN DITCH) now spans 12 parcels held by 9 owner(s) — 12 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
52Decree-to-current-use conflict1.234 ac residential parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.76.6
51Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10912837 (147 ac, ALFALFA, served by HARRIMAN DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
51Decree-to-current-use conflict1.03 ac residential parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.75.8
51Decree-to-current-use conflict0.926 ac residential parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.75.5
50Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 94% in median years → 75% dry → 46% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.71.1
50Underused water asset111.421 ac (JEFFERSON County, GRANT PROPERTIES I LLLP): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on HARRIMAN DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
50Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10913509 (125 ac, ALFALFA, served by HARRIMAN DITCH) now spans 5 parcels held by 4 owner(s) — 5 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
50Decree-to-current-use conflict1.56 ac residential parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.74.5
49Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 92% in median years → 70% dry → 39% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.6
49Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 92% in median years → 70% dry → 39% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.6
49Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 94% in median years → 75% dry → 48% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.68.4
49Decree-to-current-use conflict1.689 ac residential parcel is served by HARRIMAN DITCH, whose decree permits only [2X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.70.6
49Underused water asset90.624 ac (JEFFERSON County, CITY & COUNTY OF DENVER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on HARRIMAN DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Drought reliability cliffHARRIMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 94% in median years → 75% dry → 48% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.68.4