BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / signal:call-nowcast-exposure

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

Call Risk & Chokepointsriskcandidatedetector verifiedColorado DWR / CDSS public records (public domain). Seed-mode corpora are synthetic development data, marked in provenance.

The drought-reliability engine turned forward: current April-1 snowpack maps the coming season onto the basin's own call-intensity history, and each right's expected curtailment is read from how the river was actually administered in comparable years. Not a hydrology model — the basin's administrative track record, conditioned on this year's snow. Ships with condition class, caller timing probabilities, and observation counts.

Instances
1,349
655 distinct records
Score range
59.4–100.0
mean 93.5
Fire rate
3.0e-2
Confidence
0.70
Last observed
2026-07-18
definition v1
Asset lineagehow this signal is derived — solid = dependency, dashed = provenance; drag to explore
Quality profile7-dimension detector quality
Score distribution1,349 instances, 0–100
Evidenceclaims, risks, and assumptions behind this signal
April-1 SWE classifies the season; historical administration within that class predicts curtailment better than any priori model of the river.
Risks
  • late-spring storms or compact administration can move the season between classes
  • forecast, not observation — maturity candidate
Assumptions
  • SWE→class calibration from the corpus's own history holds for the current year
  • administration patterns persist
Top instanceshighest raw score
ScorePriRecordDetailObserved
100.0850100501-20226.00000EMPIRE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~181 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100501-20543.00000EMPIRE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~181 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100501-26302.20226EMPIRE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~204 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100501-31423.29219EMPIRE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~204 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-19083.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~181 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-20969.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~181 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-21031.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~181 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-22212.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~202 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-31423.29219RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~204 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-45655.21285RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~207 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0670100503-46751.45836RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~211 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-49841.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~211 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-50403.49841RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~212 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-50466.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~212 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0740100503-50712.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~212 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-50769.49378RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~212 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-51356.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~212 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-53330.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~212 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-55637.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~212 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100503-55989.00000RIVERSIDE CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~212 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0700100507-18353.00000BIJOU CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~181 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100507-21564.00000BIJOU CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~201 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100507-31423.29219BIJOU CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~204 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100507-44706.00000BIJOU CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~207 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0850100507-48278.00000BIJOU CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~211 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller SOUTH PLATTE RIVER COMPACT: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.2026-07-18 12:00:00
Definition provenance
signal id
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1 · created 2026-07-20 03:21:47
provenance
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