BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / signal:drought-reliability-cliff

Drought reliability cliff

Call Risk & Chokepointsriskcandidatedetector verifiedColorado DWR / CDSS public records (public domain). Seed-mode corpora are synthetic development data, marked in provenance.

Scenario engine output: empirical replay of observed call administration under median, dry, and severe (2002-class) year conditions. Fires when a right's modeled irrigation-season reliability collapses under drought — the difference between a right that degrades gracefully and one that falls off a cliff. Modeled, not observed: assumptions and confidence ship with every instance.

Instances
5,437
3,158 distinct records
Score range
67.6–100.0
mean 87.1
Fire rate
1.3e-1
Confidence
0.72
Last observed
2026-07-18
definition v1
Asset lineagehow this signal is derived — solid = dependency, dashed = provenance; drag to explore
Quality profile7-dimension detector quality
Score distribution5,437 instances, 0–100
Evidenceclaims, risks, and assumptions behind this signal
Replaying each year's actual calls against a right's priority yields an empirical reliability distribution by hydrologic condition class.
Risks
  • new storage, leases, or compact administration can change drought response
  • modeled output — not a legal or engineering conclusion
Assumptions
  • year classes derived from basin-wide call intensity percentiles proxy hydrology
  • past administration patterns transfer to future drought
Top instanceshighest raw score
ScorePriRecordDetailObserved
100.0550400501-21641.00000BARNES DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 29% dry → 11% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400501-50038.43617BARNES DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400501-52960.43617BARNES DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400501-53325.52930BARNES DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400501-54421.43617BARNES DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400501-55881.00000BARNES DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400502-55840.00000BIG T PLATTE R DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0660400502-56977.00000BIG T PLATTE R DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400503-55881.00000BIG THOMPSON DITCH & MANUFACTURING CO DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0540400509-29675.20626BRINWOOD PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400511-55881.00000LOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0590400511-56247.53171LOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0540400512-29675.28662DAVIS PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 78% in median years → 20% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0840400516-30572.00000ESTES PARK FOOTHILLS PL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 78% in median years → 20% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400519-55881.00000FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0840400520-29675.20986GEORGE RIST DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 80% in median years → 25% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0840400520-29675.22552GEORGE RIST DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 78% in median years → 21% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0550400520-55881.00000GEORGE RIST DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0840400521-24286.11597HANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 29% dry → 11% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0560400521-24286.12023HANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 28% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0840400521-24286.14209HANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 28% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0840400521-24286.19099HANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 8% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0840400521-24286.19754HANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0840400521-26084.00000HANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
100.0600400521-29675.12012HANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.2026-07-18 12:00:00
Definition provenance
signal id
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1 · created 2026-07-20 03:21:47
provenance
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