BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1588

Drought reliability cliff

candidateHANDY DITCH →

HANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.

Priority
59.6
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.20
urgency1.00
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0400521
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
29675.12012
division
1
latitude
40.421357
right_id
0400521-29675.12012
longitude
-105.224923
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0400521"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
BIG THOMPSON RIVER
seniority_rank
11552
structure_name
HANDY DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
4
decreed_rate_cfs
20
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":75,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.27,"reliability_median":0.82,"reliability_severe":0.07}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1882-11-20
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1588
record
0400521-29675.12012 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1881 priority) carries 995.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1898 priority) carries 996.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1921 priority) carries 995.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1923 priority) carries 1,072.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 797 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1880 priority) carries 632.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 485 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.5
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1904 priority) carries 995.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1877 priority) carries 744.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 593 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.2
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1902 priority) carries 995.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1888 priority) carries 995.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
95Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1905 priority) carries 997 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~202 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~198 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~190 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~144 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.85.1
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~198 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~126 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.79.3
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~198 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~198 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~196 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~195 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Basin chokepoint callerHANDY DITCH has put 2672 decreed rights (53,100 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 78,314.2 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 55.4.55.4
84Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 29% dry → 11% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 28% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 8% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 78% in median years → 21% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.100.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedHANDY DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedHANDY DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedHANDY DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
78Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
76Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 89% in median years → 59% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 48-point cliff under stress.72.5
74Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1883 priority) carries 996.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
72Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1878 priority) carries 618.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 471 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.3
72Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1901 priority) carries 996.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 26 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.0
70Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1882 priority) carries 996.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
67Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1882 priority) carries 995.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 760 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
67Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~198 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
66Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1896 priority) carries 914 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 696 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.7
66Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1916 priority) carries 1,109.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 825 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.7
65Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1887 priority) carries 744.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 593 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.2
65Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.100.0
65Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~121 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.77.7
64Critical call exposureHANDY DITCH (1872 priority) carries 526.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (141.7 day-eq). 416 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.47.5
64Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~198 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
63Drought reliability cliffHANDY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 27% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 75-point cliff under stress.100.0
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHANDY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~198 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
59Critical caller value-at-riskHANDY DITCH's observed call reaches 116 parcels — 644 coverage-weighted acres, $1.3M assessed value, 54 distinct owners — through the 1 structures it has put out of priority (78,314.2 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).52.6