BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Parcel-split allocation risk / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_parcel-split-allocation-risk_0347

Parcel-split allocation risk

verifiedDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH →

Irrigated place D1-2020-10600887 (182 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH) now spans 13 parcels held by 5 owner(s) — 13 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.

Priority
53.4
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.80
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.36
urgency0.50
confidence0.80
freshness0.50
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0600570
state
CO
county
BOULDER
owners
["WILDFLOWER RANCH LLC","CITY OF BOULDER","REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO","MCCAY ESTATES LLC","SWANSTROM GARY J LIVING TRUST"]
latitude
39.96133
place_id
D1-2020-10600887
longitude
-105.221931
parcel_ids
["08013-157715005002","08013-157716000001","08013-157716000065","08013-157709000022","08013-157709000024","08013-157716200011","08013-157709000001","08013-157709300002","08013-157716000002","08013-157716200001","08013-157716000041","08013-157716000039","08013-157709000027"]
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0600570"}
structure_name
DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH
score_components
{"owners":5,"parcels":13,"place_acres":182,"parcels_without_instrument":13}
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_parcel-split-allocation-risk_0347
record
D1-2020-10600887 @ water_irrigated_places
signal
signal:parcel-split-allocation-risk
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
71Water-backed land assemblageCITY OF BOULDER holds 16 parcels totaling 1,226 ac (assessed $21.2M) under DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH — a water-backed assemblage on one system (supply quality 0.79). assessor roll from annual OIT data call; ownership may be up to 12 months stale.100.0
68Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1864 priority) carries 524.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 8 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 392 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.45.2
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1873 priority) carries 708.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 549 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.6
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1915 priority) carries 899.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 694 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.5
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1990 priority) carries 1,054.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 792 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.8
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (2011 priority) carries 1,054.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 792 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.8
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1866 priority) carries 650.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 490 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.8
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1866 priority) carries 657.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 491 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.9
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1866 priority) carries 657.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 491 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.9
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1870 priority) carries 669.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 503 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.0
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1870 priority) carries 669.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 503 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.0
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1872 priority) carries 671.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 503 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.1
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1881 priority) carries 728.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 568 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.9
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1884 priority) carries 728.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 568 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.9
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1892 priority) carries 756 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 590 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1897 priority) carries 756.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 590 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1906 priority) carries 884.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 692 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.3
65Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1865 priority) carries 549.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 414 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.47.7
65Critical call exposureDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH (1865 priority) carries 533 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 9 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 400 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.46.1
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~92 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.59.4
55Underused water asset168.681 ac (BOULDER County, REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
54Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 34% dry → 16% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.98.7
53Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 35% dry → 18% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 64-point cliff under stress.95.6
53Augmentation condition not verifiedDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Underused water asset144.8256 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
51Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
51Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
49Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.79.5
49Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.79.5
49Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
49Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
48Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 48% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.1
47Underused water asset66.5401 ac (BOULDER County, REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
47Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.69.8
47Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.69.8
47Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.6
47Underused water asset63.883 ac (BOULDER County, REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
46Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.9
46Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.9
46Underused water asset54.978 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10600734 (48 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.98.0
45Underused water asset40.059 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
44Underused water asset32.462 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
43Underused water asset15.827 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
43Underused water asset11.693 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
43Underused water asset11.158 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
43Underused water asset10.698 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
43Underused water asset9.043 ac (BOULDER County, WILDFLOWER RANCH LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
43Underused water asset8.742 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
42Underused water asset5.025 ac (BOULDER County, SPEYRER DAVID & CHELSEA STAUBER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DRY CREEK NO 2 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8