BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3034

Drought reliability cliff

candidateDAVIDSON DITCH →

DAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 35% dry → 18% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 64-point cliff under stress.

Priority
52.9
composite 0–100
Raw score
95.6
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.91
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0600567
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
20890.20624
division
1
latitude
39.938618
right_id
0600567-20890.20624
longitude
-105.259795
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0600567"}
decreed_uses
12568W
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SOUTH BOULDER CREEK
seniority_rank
8560
structure_name
DAVIDSON DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
6
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":64,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.35,"reliability_median":0.82,"reliability_severe":0.18}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1906-06-20
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3034
record
0600567-20890.20624 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
91Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1872 priority) carries 703.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 546 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.6
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDAVIDSON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~128 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.71.0
75Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.6
73Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1915 priority) carries 900.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 693 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.5
72Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1882 priority) carries 764.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 589 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.5
72Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1904 priority) carries 764.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 589 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.5
71Water-backed land assemblageCITY OF BOULDER holds 10 parcels totaling 1,033 ac (assessed $11.4M) under DAVIDSON DITCH — a water-backed assemblage on one system (supply quality 0.79). assessor roll from annual OIT data call; ownership may be up to 12 months stale.100.0
71Basin chokepoint callerDAVIDSON DITCH has put 893 decreed rights (10,079 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 10,477.9 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 25.1.25.1
69Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1892 priority) carries 756.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 589 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1875 priority) carries 728 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 565 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.9
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1884 priority) carries 729.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 567 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.9
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1872 priority) carries 764.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 589 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.5
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1906 priority) carries 885.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 691 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.3
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1990 priority) carries 1,055.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 791 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.8
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1897 priority) carries 756.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 589 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1865 priority) carries 564.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 443 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.5
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1865 priority) carries 581.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 457 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.7
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1866 priority) carries 682.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 533 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.2
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1866 priority) carries 689.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 534 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1866 priority) carries 689.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 534 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1870 priority) carries 701.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 546 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1870 priority) carries 701.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 546 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1873 priority) carries 708.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 548 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.6
66Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1881 priority) carries 729.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 567 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.9
65Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDAVIDSON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~180 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
65Critical call exposureDAVIDSON DITCH (1904 priority) carries 764.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 589 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.5
64Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDAVIDSON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~145 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.76.4
64Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDAVIDSON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~145 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.76.4
62Underused water asset273.396 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DAVIDSON DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
62Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 34% dry → 16% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.98.7
60Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDAVIDSON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~145 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.76.4
56Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 42% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.77.4
56Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 42% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.77.4
53Augmentation condition not verifiedDAVIDSON DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
52Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
51Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
49Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.79.1
49Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.79.5
49Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.79.5
49Underused water asset95.481 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DAVIDSON DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
49Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 42% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.77.4
48Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 48% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.1
48Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 42% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.77.4
47Underused water asset74.45 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DAVIDSON DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
47Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.69.8
47Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.69.8
46Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.9
46Drought reliability cliffDAVIDSON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.9
46Underused water asset57.862 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on DAVIDSON DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8