BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2975

Drought reliability cliff

candidateCOMMUNITY DITCH →

COMMUNITY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.

Priority
72.5
composite 0–100
Raw score
79.5
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.83
urgency0.76
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0600564
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
12941
division
1
latitude
39.932406
right_id
0600564-12941.00000
longitude
-105.280686
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0600564"}
decreed_uses
0123456789AW
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SOUTH BOULDER CREEK
seniority_rank
5923
structure_name
COMMUNITY DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
6
decreed_rate_cfs
83.1046
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":53,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.47,"reliability_median":0.86,"reliability_severe":0.33}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1885-06-06
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2975
record
0600564-12941.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1929 priority) carries 789.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 619 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.8
95Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1902 priority) carries 755.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
95Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1903 priority) carries 757.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 611 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
88Critical caller value-at-riskCOMMUNITY DITCH's observed call reaches 411 parcels — 4,862 coverage-weighted acres, $140.8M assessed value, 214 distinct owners — through the 72 structures it has put out of priority (25,541.8 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).100.0
85Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1885 priority) carries 755.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCOMMUNITY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~180 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.87.6
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCOMMUNITY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~170 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.84.4
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCOMMUNITY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~145 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.76.4
82Drought reliability cliffCOMMUNITY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 34% dry → 16% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.98.7
81Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1982 priority) carries 944.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 717 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
81Drought reliability cliffCOMMUNITY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 37% dry → 21% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 62-point cliff under stress.92.4
80Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCOMMUNITY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~144 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.76.1
78Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1872 priority) carries 735.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 590 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.0
77Drought reliability cliffCOMMUNITY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 42% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.77.4
76Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1900 priority) carries 755.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
76Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1901 priority) carries 755.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
75Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCOMMUNITY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~185 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.89.2
71Water-backed land assemblageCOUNTY OF BOULDER holds 11 parcels totaling 755 ac (assessed $38.8M) under COMMUNITY DITCH — a water-backed assemblage on one system (supply quality 0.79). assessor roll from annual OIT data call; ownership may be up to 12 months stale.100.0
71Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCOMMUNITY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~136 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.73.5
71Basin chokepoint callerCOMMUNITY DITCH has put 864 decreed rights (8,756 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 25,541.8 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 24.8.24.8
70Underused water asset378.089 ac (BROOMFIELD County, BOA SORTE LIMITED PARTNERSHIP): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on COMMUNITY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
70Drought reliability cliffCOMMUNITY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
70Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1889 priority) carries 755.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
69Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCOMMUNITY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~145 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.76.4
69Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCOMMUNITY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~145 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.76.4
68Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1888 priority) carries 755.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
67Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1888 priority) carries 755.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1882 priority) carries 755.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1906 priority) carries 755.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1872 priority) carries 703.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 546 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.6
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1865 priority) carries 581.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 457 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.7
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1870 priority) carries 701.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 546 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1897 priority) carries 755.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1892 priority) carries 755.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1870 priority) carries 701.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 546 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1865 priority) carries 564.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 443 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.5
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1866 priority) carries 689.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 534 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1990 priority) carries 944.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 717 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1989 priority) carries 944.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 717 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1866 priority) carries 689.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 534 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1978 priority) carries 932.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 700 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (2011 priority) carries 944.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 717 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1884 priority) carries 755.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1915 priority) carries 789.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 619 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.8
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1911 priority) carries 789.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 619 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.8
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1881 priority) carries 755.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 609 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1866 priority) carries 682.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 533 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.2
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1906 priority) carries 774.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 617 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.6
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1878 priority) carries 754.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 607 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCOMMUNITY DITCH (1873 priority) carries 735.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 590 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.0