BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2926

Drought reliability cliff

candidateBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH

BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 50% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.

Priority
62.9
composite 0–100
Raw score
80.8
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.50
urgency0.77
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0600516
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
32385
division
1
latitude
40.015049
right_id
0600516-32385.00000
longitude
-105.278716
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0600516"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
BOULDER CREEK
seniority_rank
13092
structure_name
BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
6
decreed_rate_cfs
50
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":54,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.5,"reliability_median":0.86,"reliability_severe":0.32}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1938-09-01
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2926
record
0600516-32385.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (1873 priority) carries 662.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH (143.5 day-eq). 447 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.9
95Critical call exposureBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (1904 priority) carries 672.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH (143.5 day-eq). 453 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.1
95Critical call exposureBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (1929 priority) carries 692.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH (143.5 day-eq). 473 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.4
95Critical call exposureBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (1894 priority) carries 663.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH (143.5 day-eq). 447 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.0
88Critical caller value-at-riskBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH's observed call reaches 1404 parcels — 13,278 coverage-weighted acres, $365.7M assessed value, 606 distinct owners — through the 431 structures it has put out of priority (106,350.8 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~119 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.68.1
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~115 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.66.8
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~139 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.74.5
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~94 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.60.1
77Drought reliability cliffBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.77.5
77Critical call exposureBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (1930 priority) carries 698.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 26 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH (143.5 day-eq). 482 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
77Critical call exposureBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (1905 priority) carries 692.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH (143.5 day-eq). 473 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.4
77Critical call exposureBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (1938 priority) carries 698.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 26 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH (143.5 day-eq). 482 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
71Water-backed land assemblageCOUNTY OF BOULDER holds 49 parcels totaling 3,346 ac (assessed $166.5M) under BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH — a water-backed assemblage on one system (supply quality 0.79). assessor roll from annual OIT data call; ownership may be up to 12 months stale.100.0
71Water-backed land assemblageCITY OF BOULDER holds 12 parcels totaling 617 ac (assessed $45.2M) under BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH — a water-backed assemblage on one system (supply quality 0.79). assessor roll from annual OIT data call; ownership may be up to 12 months stale.100.0
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~145 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.76.4
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~136 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.73.5
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~145 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.76.4
69Basin chokepoint callerBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH has put 571 decreed rights (3,344 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 106,350.8 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 22.2.22.2
66Underused water asset321.094 ac (BOULDER County, BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH & RESERVOIR CO): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
63Drought reliability cliffBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 50% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.8
62Drought reliability cliffBOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 53% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 50-point cliff under stress.75.5
59Underused water asset232.771 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
57Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10611779 (236 ac, BARLEY, served by BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH) now spans 6 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 6 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
55Underused water asset173.5 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
55Underused water asset171.93 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
54Underused water asset158.738 ac (BOULDER County, CALDWELL FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
54Underused water asset155.68 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
53Underused water asset155.01080631 ac (WELD County, RASMUSSEN SHERRI LYNN): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
52Underused water asset139.617 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
52Underused water asset138.493 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
52Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10604309 (154 ac, CORN, served by BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH) now spans 6 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 6 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
51Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10600257 (148 ac, ALFALFA, served by BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
51Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10613112 (144 ac, CORN, served by BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH) now spans 5 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 5 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
51Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10602133 (140 ac, SUGAR_BEETS, served by BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.99.8
51Underused water asset117.3997 ac (BOULDER County, DOWD LEMOINE O): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
51Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10605459 (134 ac, CORN, served by BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.99.7
50Underused water asset109.54 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
50Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10611703 (122 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH) now spans 5 parcels held by 4 owner(s) — 5 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
49Underused water asset101.367 ac (BOULDER County, CALDWELL FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Underused water asset98.326 ac (BOULDER County, BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH & RES): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Underused water asset97.1402 ac (BOULDER County, VAN THUYNE JULIUS A JR ET AL): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10605457 (102 ac, SUGAR_BEETS, served by BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH) now spans 5 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 5 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
48Underused water asset86.39547195 ac (WELD County, RIINN VALLEY FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset83.571 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset81.024 ac (BOULDER County, BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH & RESERVOIR CO): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset79.018 ac (BOULDER County, NIWOT SANITATION DISTRICT): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset78.6041135 ac (WELD County, INEZ SAWDEY TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset78.071 ac (BOULDER County, RAYNOLDS MARY VERA & ROBERT G): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset77.974 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8