BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2568

Drought reliability cliff

candidateST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2 →

ST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.

Priority
55.1
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency1.00
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0500918
state
CO
county
WELD
admin_no
29219
division
1
latitude
40.162364
right_id
0500918-29219.00000
longitude
-105.005687
county_fips
08123
identifiers
{"wdid":"0500918"}
decreed_uses
2X
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SAINT VRAIN CREEK
seniority_rank
11283
structure_name
ST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2
structure_type
PUMP
water_district
5
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":74,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.29,"reliability_median":0.81,"reliability_severe":0.07}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1929-12-31
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2568
record
0500918-29219.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
73Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
70Critical call exposureST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2 (1986 priority) carries 1,053.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 50 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 855 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.8
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2 (1929 priority) carries 1,046.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 846 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.7
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2 (1902 priority) carries 997.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 42 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 813 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.0
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2 (1904 priority) carries 1,014.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 44 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 834 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.2
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2 (1871 priority) carries 602.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 508 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.0
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2 (1902 priority) carries 988.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 41 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 808 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.8
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
60Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 35% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 33% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 36% dry → 10% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 72-point cliff under stress.100.0
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
43Decree-to-current-use conflict36.62370091 ac res vacant parcel is served by ST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2, whose decree permits only [12345678AP]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.62.5
36Water-secured development parcel36.62370091 ac res vacant parcel (WELD County, assessed $5k, p7 $/ac for its class) served by ST VRAIN PUMP STATION 2 — water quality 0.79, physical service only — entitlement unverified. Water-secured development-ready ground.72.4