BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2317

Drought reliability cliff

candidateSWEDE DITCH →

SWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.

Priority
56.6
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.10
urgency1.00
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0500529
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
49673.49489
division
1
latitude
40.211465
right_id
0500529-49673.49489
longitude
-105.251349
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0500529"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SAINT VRAIN CREEK
seniority_rank
34705
structure_name
SWEDE DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
5
decreed_rate_cfs
10
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":74,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.29,"reliability_median":0.81,"reliability_severe":0.07}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1985-06-30
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2317
record
0500529-49673.49489 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
79Augmentation condition not verifiedSWEDE DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedSWEDE DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
72Underused water asset500.289 ac (BOULDER County, GUERCIO JAMES WILLIAM): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SWEDE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1911 priority) carries 995.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 45 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 797 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
71Water-backed land assemblageCOUNTY OF BOULDER holds 9 parcels totaling 736 ac (assessed $60.0M) under SWEDE DITCH — a water-backed assemblage on one system (supply quality 0.79). assessor roll from annual OIT data call; ownership may be up to 12 months stale.100.0
71Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1886 priority) carries 925.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 31 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (154.9 day-eq). 752 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
71Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1908 priority) carries 975.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 43 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 792 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.6
70Basin chokepoint callerSWEDE DITCH has put 707 decreed rights (11,277 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 29,771.4 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 24.3.24.3
68Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1871 priority) carries 562.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 468 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
67Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1985 priority) carries 1,011.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 813 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.2
67Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1873 priority) carries 717.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 580 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.8
66Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1870 priority) carries 560.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 466 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
66Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1902 priority) carries 946.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 40 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 766 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1902 priority) carries 955.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 41 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 771 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1869 priority) carries 552.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 457 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.3
66Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1873 priority) carries 718.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 580 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.8
66Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1929 priority) carries 1,004.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 48 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 804 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.1
66Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1873 priority) carries 718.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 580 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.8
66Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1871 priority) carries 562.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 468 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
66Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1904 priority) carries 972 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 43 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 792 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.6
65Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1984 priority) carries 1,011.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 813 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.2
65Critical call exposureSWEDE DITCH (1869 priority) carries 493.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 402 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.45.7
64Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSWEDE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~198 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
63Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSWEDE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~188 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
63Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSWEDE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~196 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
62Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 31% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
62Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 40% dry → 12% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 70-point cliff under stress.100.0
61Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 33% dry → 8% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
60Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSWEDE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~107 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.76.3
58Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSWEDE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
58Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSWEDE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~144 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.94.1
57Underused water asset208.398 ac (BOULDER County, HIGHLAND DITCH CO): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SWEDE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
55Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 35% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 36% dry → 10% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 72-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 33% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
54Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
53Augmentation condition not verifiedSWEDE DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
50Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3
50Underused water asset111.14 ac (BOULDER County, TOLL CHRISTINA B ET AL): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SWEDE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
50Underused water asset109.589 ac (BOULDER County, THE RANCH AT BOHN LAKE LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SWEDE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.2
49Drought reliability cliffSWEDE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.1
49Underused water asset101.131 ac (BOULDER County, TOLL CHRISTINA B ET AL): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SWEDE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Underused water asset94.59 ac (BOULDER County, ANDERSON ANDERS & SARAH ADAMS): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SWEDE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10505289 (86 ac, SMALL_GRAINS, served by SWEDE DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.98.7
48Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10513281 (86 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by SWEDE DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
48Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10505291 (85 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by SWEDE DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
47Underused water asset70.899 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SWEDE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
47Underused water asset68.3023 ac (BOULDER County, HOSIER ANNE ELIZABETH): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SWEDE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8