BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2300

Drought reliability cliff

candidateST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH →

ST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 35% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.

Priority
55.1
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency1.00
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0500528
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
19273
division
1
latitude
40.212428
right_id
0500528-19273.00000
longitude
-105.252717
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0500528"}
decreed_uses
2X
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SAINT VRAIN CREEK
seniority_rank
7897
structure_name
ST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
5
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":73,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.35,"reliability_median":0.82,"reliability_severe":0.09}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1902-10-08
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2300
record
0500528-19273.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
88Critical caller value-at-riskST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH's observed call reaches 1697 parcels — 22,845 coverage-weighted acres, $204.3M assessed value, 1047 distinct owners — through the 28 structures it has put out of priority (52,614.5 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).100.0
85Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1874 priority) carries 732.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 607 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.0
80Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
80Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1911 priority) carries 973.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 45 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 790 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.6
80Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1929 priority) carries 982.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 48 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 797 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.7
76Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1889 priority) carries 910.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (154.9 day-eq). 752 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.7
75Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1909 priority) carries 953.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 43 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 785 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
75Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.6
73Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~198 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
73Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
72Underused water asset866.358 ac (BOULDER County, CEMEX INC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1890 priority) carries 912 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (154.9 day-eq). 752 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.7
72Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1892 priority) carries 918.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 36 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (154.9 day-eq). 755 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.8
72Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 31% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
72Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
71Basin chokepoint callerST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH has put 821 decreed rights (11,418 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 52,614.5 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 25.8.25.8
69Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~190 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
68Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 38% dry → 11% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
67Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~196 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1871 priority) carries 538.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 459 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.1
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1877 priority) carries 732.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 607 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.0
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1873 priority) carries 696.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 573 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.4
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1986 priority) carries 989.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 806 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.8
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1873 priority) carries 696.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 573 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.4
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1904 priority) carries 950.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 43 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 785 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1902 priority) carries 933.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 41 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 764 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1873 priority) carries 693.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 571 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.4
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1902 priority) carries 924.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 40 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 759 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1871 priority) carries 692.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 570 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.4
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1871 priority) carries 498.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 419 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.47.4
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1870 priority) carries 496.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 417 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.47.2
66Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 33% dry → 8% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
65Critical call exposureST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH (1869 priority) carries 488.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 408 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.46.2
64Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~190 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
64Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~191 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
62Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 37% dry → 11% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 72-point cliff under stress.100.0
62Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 38% dry → 11% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 36% dry → 10% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 72-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 33% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Underused water asset124.7804 ac (BOULDER County, DUNN CLIFF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
51Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.6
50Underused water asset107.072 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
50Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10504931 (118 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by ST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
49Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.2
49Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.1
49Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 55% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3
49Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN PALMERTON DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3