BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2280

Drought reliability cliff

candidateROUGH READY DITCH →

ROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.

Priority
60.5
composite 0–100
Raw score
81.1
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.42
urgency0.77
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0500527
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
8464
division
1
latitude
40.212473
right_id
0500527-8464.00000
longitude
-105.252846
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0500527"}
decreed_uses
12APWX
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SAINT VRAIN CREEK
seniority_rank
3427
structure_name
ROUGH READY DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
5
decreed_rate_cfs
41.67
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":54,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.54,"reliability_median":0.86,"reliability_severe":0.32}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1873-03-04
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2280
record
0500527-8464.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
93Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1929 priority) carries 985.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 48 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 791 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.8
93Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1961 priority) carries 992.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
93Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1904 priority) carries 953 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 43 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 779 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentROUGH READY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentROUGH READY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentROUGH READY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~195 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 33% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedROUGH READY DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
75Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1873 priority) carries 699.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 567 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
74Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1869 priority) carries 492 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 402 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.45.7
71Water-backed land assemblageCOUNTY OF BOULDER holds 12 parcels totaling 1,011 ac (assessed $38.8M) under ROUGH READY DITCH — a water-backed assemblage on one system (supply quality 0.79). assessor roll from annual OIT data call; ownership may be up to 12 months stale.100.0
70Basin chokepoint callerROUGH READY DITCH has put 759 decreed rights (11,118 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 45,261.9 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 25.25.0
68Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentROUGH READY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~145 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.94.4
68Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentROUGH READY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~91 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.71.2
66Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1902 priority) carries 927.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 40 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 753 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
66Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1884 priority) carries 898.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (154.9 day-eq). 732 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.5
66Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1873 priority) carries 699.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 567 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
66Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1877 priority) carries 735 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 601 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.0
66Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1986 priority) carries 992.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
66Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1873 priority) carries 697.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 565 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
66Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1871 priority) carries 695.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 564 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.4
66Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1902 priority) carries 936.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 41 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 758 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
65Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1871 priority) carries 502.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 413 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.46.9
65Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1870 priority) carries 500.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 411 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.46.6
65Critical call exposureROUGH READY DITCH (1869 priority) carries 492 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 402 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.45.7
55Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 36% dry → 10% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 72-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 35% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 41% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 70-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Underused water asset174.0386404 ac (WELD County, UNION RESERVOIR): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
53Augmentation condition not verifiedROUGH READY DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Underused water asset147.3093 ac (BOULDER County, JDA LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
53Augmentation condition not verifiedROUGH READY DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.6
51Underused water asset115.329 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.2
49Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 55% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3
49Drought reliability cliffROUGH READY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3
49Underused water asset96.367 ac (BOULDER County, PUMA 66 INVESTORS LLLP): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Underused water asset93.973 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset84.78250253 ac (WELD County, LONGMONT CITY OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset77.2 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset76.948 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset76.3288 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
47Underused water asset74.324 ac (BOULDER County, COUNTY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
47Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10500200 (78 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by ROUGH READY DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.89.6
47Underused water asset69.5 ac (BOULDER County, TICE CENTENNIAL LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
46Underused water asset61.17989115 ac (WELD County, LONGMONT CITY OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on ROUGH READY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8