BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2202

Drought reliability cliff

candidateSUPPLY DITCH →

SUPPLY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 45% dry → 18% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.

Priority
67.4
composite 0–100
Raw score
99.6
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.50
urgency0.95
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0500523
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
11073
division
1
latitude
40.218805
right_id
0500523-11073.00000
longitude
-105.261708
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0500523"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SAINT VRAIN CREEK
seniority_rank
4864
structure_name
SUPPLY DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
5
decreed_rate_cfs
50
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":66,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.45,"reliability_median":0.84,"reliability_severe":0.18}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1880-04-25
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2202
record
0500523-11073.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1967 priority) carries 994.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 820 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
90Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1986 priority) carries 994.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 820 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
88Basin chokepoint callerSUPPLY DITCH has put 3026 decreed rights (70,347 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 36,828 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 63.63.0
88Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1878 priority) carries 806.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 666 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.1
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSUPPLY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSUPPLY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffSUPPLY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffSUPPLY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
83Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSUPPLY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~156 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.9
77Drought reliability cliffSUPPLY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 53% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.7
77Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1929 priority) carries 987.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 48 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 811 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.8
77Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1918 priority) carries 982.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 46 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 811 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.7
77Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1880 priority) carries 833.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (152.8 day-eq). 703 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.5
75Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1881 priority) carries 898.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (154.9 day-eq). 749 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.5
72Underused water asset418.111 ac (BOULDER County, TURNER ARNOLD E): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SUPPLY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Underused water asset523.263 ac (BOULDER County, CEMEX INC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SUPPLY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
71Water-backed land assemblageCOUNTY OF BOULDER holds 17 parcels totaling 1,290 ac (assessed $60.6M) under SUPPLY DITCH — a water-backed assemblage on one system (supply quality 0.79). assessor roll from annual OIT data call; ownership may be up to 12 months stale.100.0
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSUPPLY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSUPPLY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSUPPLY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~177 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
70Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1975 priority) carries 994.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 820 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
69Drought reliability cliffSUPPLY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 31% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
69Drought reliability cliffSUPPLY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
68Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1881 priority) carries 891.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (154.9 day-eq). 749 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
67Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentSUPPLY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~186 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
67Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1982 priority) carries 994.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 820 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
67Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1968 priority) carries 994.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 820 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
67Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1960 priority) carries 994.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 820 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1904 priority) carries 954.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 43 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 799 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1877 priority) carries 876.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (154.9 day-eq). 725 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.2
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1904 priority) carries 954.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 43 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 799 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1871 priority) carries 602.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 508 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.0
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1902 priority) carries 937.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 41 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 778 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.1
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1871 priority) carries 562.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 468 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1902 priority) carries 929.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 40 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 773 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1892 priority) carries 923.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 36 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (154.9 day-eq). 769 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1870 priority) carries 560.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 466 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1869 priority) carries 552.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 457 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.3
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1877 priority) carries 796.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 656 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.9
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1873 priority) carries 760.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 622 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1873 priority) carries 760.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 622 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1967 priority) carries 994.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 820 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1910 priority) carries 987.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 48 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 811 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.8
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1873 priority) carries 757.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 620 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1892 priority) carries 987.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 48 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 811 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.8
66Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1871 priority) carries 756.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 619 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Drought reliability cliffSUPPLY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 41% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 70-point cliff under stress.100.0
65Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1869 priority) carries 493.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 402 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.45.7
65Critical call exposureSUPPLY DITCH (1967 priority) carries 994.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 820 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.9
64Underused water asset296.76727363 ac (WELD County, STILLROVEN FARM INC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on SUPPLY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8