BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1622

Drought reliability cliff

candidateLARIMER CO IRR MFG D →

LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.

Priority
55.1
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency1.00
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0400529
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
55881
division
1
latitude
40.398254
right_id
0400529-55881.00000
longitude
-105.108777
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0400529"}
decreed_uses
2
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
BIG THOMPSON RIVER
seniority_rank
42533
structure_name
LARIMER CO IRR MFG D
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
4
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":71,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.17,"reliability_median":0.77,"reliability_severe":0.06}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
2002-12-30
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1622
record
0400529-55881.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
78Augmentation condition not verifiedLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
71Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1873 priority) carries 668.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 498 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.0
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1969 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1994 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1969 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1969 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (2002 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
62Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~114 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.75.5
55Drought reliability cliffLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
53Augmentation condition not verifiedLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5