BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Season call nowcast: expected curtailment / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0677

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

candidateLARIMER CO IRR MFG D

LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~114 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.

Priority
62.4
composite 0–100
Raw score
75.5
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.70
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.24
urgency0.85
confidence0.70
freshness0.90
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0400529
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
8699
division
1
latitude
40.398254
right_id
0400529-8699.00000
longitude
-105.108777
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0400529"}
decreed_uses
012345678APQX
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
BIG THOMPSON RIVER
seniority_rank
3798
structure_name
LARIMER CO IRR MFG D
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
4
decreed_rate_cfs
23.7167
score_components
{"swe_pct_median":61,"condition_class":"severe","dominant_caller":"FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL","p_call_by_jun15":0.5,"comparable_seasons":6,"expected_curtailment_days":114}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1873-10-25
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0677
record
0400529-8699.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
78Augmentation condition not verifiedLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
71Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1873 priority) carries 668.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 498 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.0
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1969 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1994 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1969 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1969 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
66Critical call exposureLARIMER CO IRR MFG D (2002 priority) carries 1,239.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 921 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
55Drought reliability cliffLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
53Augmentation condition not verifiedLARIMER CO IRR MFG D: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5