BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Season call nowcast: expected curtailment / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0607

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

candidateCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR

CACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~160 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.

Priority
58.3
composite 0–100
Raw score
81.2
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.70
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.10
urgency0.85
confidence0.70
freshness0.90
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0303775
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
20066.19327
division
1
latitude
40.549056
right_id
0303775-20066.19327
longitude
-104.959855
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0303775"}
decreed_uses
12347ACR
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
8100
structure_name
CACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR
structure_type
RESERVOIR
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"swe_pct_median":61,"condition_class":"severe","dominant_caller":"OGILVY DITCH","p_call_by_jun15":0,"comparable_seasons":3,"expected_curtailment_days":160}
decreed_volume_af
1740
appropriation_date
1902-12-01
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0607
record
0303775-20066.19327 @ water_rights
signal
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
83Basin chokepoint callerCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR has put 3086 decreed rights (89,696 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 8,580.3 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2025. Caller Power Index 67.2.67.2
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR (1892 priority) carries 1,213.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 910 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.2
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR (1902 priority) carries 1,240.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 915 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.6
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR (1923 priority) carries 1,259.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 31 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR (2014 priority) carries 1,266.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.0
58Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
58Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~154 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.79.3
53Augmentation condition not verifiedCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.89.0
51Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 36% dry → 25% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.6
50Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE RESERVOIR: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 41% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 56-point cliff under stress.83.6