BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Season call nowcast: expected curtailment / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0508

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

candidateNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH →

NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.

Priority
74.8
composite 0–100
Raw score
82.8
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.70
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.65
urgency0.85
confidence0.70
freshness0.90
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300929
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
45655.45437
division
1
latitude
40.501761
right_id
0300929-45655.45437
longitude
-104.966847
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300929"}
decreed_uses
012345678ACRW
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
29636
structure_name
NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
65
score_components
{"swe_pct_median":61,"condition_class":"severe","dominant_caller":"OGILVY DITCH","p_call_by_jun15":0,"comparable_seasons":3,"expected_curtailment_days":165}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1974-05-27
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0508
record
0300929-45655.45437 @ water_rights
signal
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1874 priority) carries 700.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 556 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
95Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1877 priority) carries 711.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 570 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.7
95Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1871 priority) carries 617 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 502 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.3
95Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2002 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
92Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1870 priority) carries 616.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 502 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.3
89Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2001 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
88Critical caller value-at-riskNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH's observed call reaches 4838 parcels — 49,708 coverage-weighted acres, $81.2M assessed value, 2835 distinct owners — through the 42 structures it has put out of priority (277,422.3 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~143 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.81.7
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~100 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.67.9
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~114 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.72.4
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~138 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.80.1
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
81Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1974 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
80Drought reliability cliffNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
79Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Drought reliability cliffNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
77Drought reliability cliffNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 49% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
77Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1986 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
77Drought reliability cliffNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 51% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.75.8
76Basin chokepoint callerNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH has put 1447 decreed rights (39,426 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 277,422.3 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 44.4.44.4
73Decree-to-current-use conflict53.34140005 ac commercial parcel is served by NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, whose decree permits only [2]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.88.3
73Decree-to-current-use conflict176.70040203 ac commercial parcel is served by NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, whose decree permits only [2]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.89.2
73Decree-to-current-use conflict22.06714333 ac commercial parcel is served by NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, whose decree permits only [2]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.88.3
73Decree-to-current-use conflict6.54746477 ac industrial parcel is served by NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, whose decree permits only [2]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.95.1
72Underused water asset1087.19240166 ac (WELD County, GREELEY WELD COUNTY AIRPORT AUTHORITY): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Underused water asset599.2960858 ac (WELD County, D & D BASHOR FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Underused water asset550.25353214 ac (WELD County, WELLS RANCH): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Underused water asset1029.55754109 ac (WELD County, NEW CACHE LA POUDRE IRR CO): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
70Decree-to-current-use conflict17.0933641 ac industrial parcel is served by NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, whose decree permits only [2]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.87.9
70Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2019 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
70Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2017 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
70Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2013 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
69Drought reliability cliffNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
68Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2008 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
67Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2014 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Decree-to-current-use conflict28.45841101 ac commercial parcel is served by NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, whose decree permits only [2]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.88.1
66Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1986 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2018 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1914 priority) carries 1,060.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.9
66Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2014 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1881 priority) carries 758 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 601 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1873 priority) carries 688.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 551 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (1878 priority) carries 711.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 570 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.7
65Underused water asset314.88435863 ac (WELD County, MCDANIEL KENT J): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
65Critical call exposureNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (2008 priority) carries 1,075.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 800 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
65Drought reliability cliffNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8