BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Season call nowcast: expected curtailment / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0502

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

candidateBOX ELDER DITCH →

BOX ELDER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.

Priority
58.6
composite 0–100
Raw score
82.8
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.70
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.11
urgency0.85
confidence0.70
freshness0.90
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300926
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
59983
division
1
latitude
40.564564
right_id
0300926-59983.00000
longitude
-105.025656
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300926"}
decreed_uses
2
legal_status
Absolute and Conditional
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
52604
structure_name
BOX ELDER DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
11.29
score_components
{"swe_pct_median":61,"condition_class":"severe","dominant_caller":"OGILVY DITCH","p_call_by_jun15":0,"comparable_seasons":3,"expected_curtailment_days":165}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
2014-03-24
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0502
record
0300926-59983.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
77Basin chokepoint callerBOX ELDER DITCH has put 1655 decreed rights (41,103 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 37,896.2 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 42.42.0
77Critical call exposureBOX ELDER DITCH (2005 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOX ELDER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
67Critical call exposureBOX ELDER DITCH (2014 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureBOX ELDER DITCH (2011 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureBOX ELDER DITCH (1994 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureBOX ELDER DITCH (1986 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureBOX ELDER DITCH (2005 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureBOX ELDER DITCH (2015 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
65Critical call exposureBOX ELDER DITCH (1990 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
65Drought reliability cliffBOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
53Drought reliability cliffBOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffBOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffBOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffBOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffBOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffBOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Drought reliability cliffBOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
46Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10303048 (65 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.98.3
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10302195 (39 ac, SUGAR_BEETS, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.8
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10309631 (39 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.8
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10301320 (27 ac, SORGHUM_GRAIN, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10302352 (27 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.5
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10300172 (20 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.4
43Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10315481 (16 ac, ALFALFA, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.3
43Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10309630 (15 ac, ALFALFA, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.3
43Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10306603 (10 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.2
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1