BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances

Overview / Signals / Basin chokepoint caller / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_basin-chokepoint-caller_0054

Basin chokepoint caller

verifiedBOX ELDER DITCH →

BOX ELDER DITCH has put 1655 decreed rights (41,103 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 37,896.2 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 42.

Priority

77.2

composite 0–100

Raw score

42.0

detector output 0–100

Confidence

0.92

0–1

Observed

2026-09-30

00:00:00

Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10

impact0.43

urgency1.00

confidence0.92

freshness1.00

novelty0.60

Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried

wdid: 0300926
state: CO
county: LARIMER
division: 1
latitude: 40.564564
longitude: -105.025656
county_fips: 08069
identifiers: {"wdid":"0300926"}
water_source: CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
structure_name: BOX ELDER DITCH
structure_type: DITCH
water_district: 3
score_components: {"depth":0.03,"breadth":0.43,"recency":1,"impaired_cfs":41103,"decreed_volume":0.45,"day_equivalents":37896.2,"impaired_owners":0,"impaired_rights":1655}

Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from

instance id: siginst_ep_wr_20260718_basin-chokepoint-caller_0054
record: 0300926 @ water_structures
signal: signal:basin-chokepoint-caller
definition: v1
genome: v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch: ep_wr_20260718
lineage status: resolved
detected: 2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from: 2026-09-30 00:00:00
source refs: ["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]

Co-firing signalsother detections on this record

Pri	Signal	Detail	Score
77	Critical call exposure	BOX ELDER DITCH (2005 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.	58.8
70	Season call nowcast: expected curtailment	BOX ELDER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.	82.8
67	Critical call exposure	BOX ELDER DITCH (2014 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.	58.8
66	Critical call exposure	BOX ELDER DITCH (2015 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.	58.8
66	Critical call exposure	BOX ELDER DITCH (1994 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.	58.8
66	Critical call exposure	BOX ELDER DITCH (2011 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.	58.8
66	Critical call exposure	BOX ELDER DITCH (2005 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.	58.8
66	Critical call exposure	BOX ELDER DITCH (1986 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.	58.8
65	Critical call exposure	BOX ELDER DITCH (1990 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 919 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.	58.8
65	Drought reliability cliff	BOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.	88.3
59	Season call nowcast: expected curtailment	BOX ELDER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.	82.8
53	Drought reliability cliff	BOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.	88.3
51	Drought reliability cliff	BOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.	88.3
51	Drought reliability cliff	BOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.	88.3
51	Drought reliability cliff	BOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.	88.3
51	Drought reliability cliff	BOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.	88.3
51	Drought reliability cliff	BOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.	88.3
50	Drought reliability cliff	BOX ELDER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.	88.3
46	Parcel-split allocation risk	Irrigated place D1-2020-10303048 (65 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.	98.3
45	Parcel-split allocation risk	Irrigated place D1-2020-10302195 (39 ac, SUGAR_BEETS, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.	88.8
45	Parcel-split allocation risk	Irrigated place D1-2020-10309631 (39 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.	88.8
44	Parcel-split allocation risk	Irrigated place D1-2020-10301320 (27 ac, SORGHUM_GRAIN, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.	100.0
44	Parcel-split allocation risk	Irrigated place D1-2020-10302352 (27 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.	88.5
44	Parcel-split allocation risk	Irrigated place D1-2020-10300172 (20 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.	88.4
43	Parcel-split allocation risk	Irrigated place D1-2020-10315481 (16 ac, ALFALFA, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.	88.3
43	Parcel-split allocation risk	Irrigated place D1-2020-10309630 (15 ac, ALFALFA, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.	88.3
43	Parcel-split allocation risk	Irrigated place D1-2020-10306603 (10 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOX ELDER DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.	88.2
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac residential parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1
43	Decree-to-current-use conflict	null ac commercial parcel is served by BOX ELDER DITCH, whose decree permits only [2AC]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.	65.1