BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Parcel-split allocation risk / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_parcel-split-allocation-risk_1218

Parcel-split allocation risk

verifiedFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL →

Irrigated place D1-2020-10403599 (31 ac, WHEAT_FALL, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 3 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.

Priority
44.4
composite 0–100
Raw score
97.6
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.80
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.06
urgency0.50
confidence0.80
freshness0.50
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0400519
state
CO
county
WELD
owners
["CUMMINGS JOHN L","ROSS DAVID M","BUHLKE STEVEN LEE"]
latitude
40.38811
place_id
D1-2020-10403599
longitude
-104.94245
parcel_ids
["08123-095719000057","08123-095719000051","08123-095719000056"]
county_fips
08123
identifiers
{"wdid":"0400519"}
structure_name
FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL
score_components
{"owners":3,"parcels":3,"place_acres":31,"parcels_without_instrument":3}
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_parcel-split-allocation-risk_1218
record
D1-2020-10403599 @ water_irrigated_places
signal
signal:parcel-split-allocation-risk
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
82Critical caller value-at-riskFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL's observed call reaches 2724 parcels — 18,045 coverage-weighted acres, $62.5M assessed value, 1332 distinct owners — through the 33 structures it has put out of priority (103,352.3 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).100.0
76Critical call exposureFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (1878 priority) carries 562.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller BIG T PLATTE R DITCH (143.2 day-eq). 392 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.45.8
71Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~123 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BIG T PLATTE R DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.75.3
70Basin chokepoint callerFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL has put 736 decreed rights (11,245 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 103,352.3 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 26.26.0
66Critical call exposureFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (1901 priority) carries 855 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller BIG T PLATTE R DITCH (143.2 day-eq). 615 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.8
66Critical call exposureFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (1883 priority) carries 685.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller BIG T PLATTE R DITCH (143.2 day-eq). 512 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposureFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (1887 priority) carries 725 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller BIG T PLATTE R DITCH (143.2 day-eq). 531 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.9
66Critical call exposureFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (2002 priority) carries 1,089.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 787 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.3
64Critical call exposureFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (1880 priority) carries 566.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller BIG T PLATTE R DITCH (143.2 day-eq). 397 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.46.3
64Critical call exposureFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (1878 priority) carries 562.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller BIG T PLATTE R DITCH (143.2 day-eq). 392 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.45.8
62Drought reliability cliffFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 90% in median years → 61% dry → 43% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.70.6
59Augmentation condition not verifiedFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.66.5
55Drought reliability cliffFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
54Drought reliability cliffFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 41% dry → 17% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.99.6
53Augmentation condition not verifiedFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
52Underused water asset132.23001932 ac (WELD County, GERRARD INVESTMENTS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
51Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10401833 (141 ac, ALFALFA, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 7 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 7 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
51Drought reliability cliffFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 49% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.7
51Decree-to-current-use conflict9.47524853 ac commercial parcel is served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL, whose decree permits only [01234578AQ]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.68.9
51Decree-to-current-use conflict9.47524853 ac commercial parcel is served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL, whose decree permits only [01234578AQ]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.72.3
50Underused water asset113.28086364 ac (WELD County, COULSON EXCAVATING CO INC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
50Drought reliability cliffFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
49Underused water asset96.16227377 ac (WELD County, CUMMINGS JOHN L): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Underused water asset80.33977559 ac (WELD County, CROISSANT FAMILY FARM LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
47Drought reliability cliffFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 89% in median years → 60% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 48-point cliff under stress.71.6
47Drought reliability cliffFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 90% in median years → 61% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.70.9
47Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10401171 (75 ac, WHEAT_FALL, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 4 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
47Decree-to-current-use conflict13.55316038 ac industrial parcel is served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL, whose decree permits only [01234578AQ]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.67.2
47Decree-to-current-use conflict13.55316038 ac industrial parcel is served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL, whose decree permits only [01234578AQ]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
47Underused water asset63.65850065 ac (WELD County, R H AMEN FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
46Drought reliability cliffFARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 90% in median years → 63% dry → 45% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.7
46Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10401457 (61 ac, CORN, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 5 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 5 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
46Decree-to-current-use conflict5.02735852 ac commercial parcel is served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL, whose decree permits only [01234578AQ]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.64.5
46Decree-to-current-use conflict2.01514734 ac commercial parcel is served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL, whose decree permits only [01234578AQ]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.68.9
46Underused water asset49.14284287 ac (WELD County, R H AMEN FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10406674 (46 ac, ALFALFA, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 4 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10402823 (42 ac, ALFALFA, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 4 parcels held by 4 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10403327 (40 ac, ALFALFA, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.8
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10400295 (38 ac, CORN, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.8
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10403241 (38 ac, SUGAR_BEETS, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 3 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.97.8
45Underused water asset37.18087947 ac (WELD County, PALLOTTO MICHAEL GENE): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10412958 (35 ac, SUGAR_BEETS, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.7
45Underused water asset36.9451774 ac (WELD County, R H AMEN FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
45Underused water asset35.5503144 ac (WELD County, FRIEDE CHERYL): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
45Underused water asset35.29616533 ac (WELD County, ROSS DAVID M): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
44Underused water asset34.7485816 ac (WELD County, RATH GARY): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10411104 (32 ac, ALFALFA, served by FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL) now spans 3 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.97.6
44Underused water asset33.28834898 ac (WELD County, CROISSANT FAMILY FARM LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8