BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Parcel-split allocation risk / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_parcel-split-allocation-risk_1181

Parcel-split allocation risk

verifiedPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL →

Irrigated place D1-2020-10303428 (50 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by PLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL) now spans 4 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.

Priority
45.5
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.80
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.10
urgency0.50
confidence0.80
freshness0.50
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300910
state
CO
county
LARIMER
owners
["GRAVES ROBERT L/LORI E","HEINZ EMILY A","WELCH AND SCHMID FAMILY TRUST"]
latitude
40.621689
place_id
D1-2020-10303428
longitude
-105.145738
parcel_ids
["08069-9832000009","08069-9832007701","08069-9832000017","08069-9832000014"]
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300910"}
structure_name
PLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL
score_components
{"owners":3,"parcels":4,"place_acres":50,"parcels_without_instrument":4}
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_parcel-split-allocation-risk_1181
record
D1-2020-10303428 @ water_irrigated_places
signal
signal:parcel-split-allocation-risk
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
85Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1879 priority) carries 916 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 704 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.7
84Critical caller value-at-riskPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL's observed call reaches 5105 parcels — 63,816 coverage-weighted acres, $100.2M assessed value, 3124 distinct owners — through the 36 structures it has put out of priority (61,801.6 day-equivalents, most recently 2025).100.0
80Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~151 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.90.4
73Basin chokepoint callerPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL has put 1696 decreed rights (41,162 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 61,801.6 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2025. Caller Power Index 41.1.41.1
72Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 45% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 55-point cliff under stress.81.8
69Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1872 priority) carries 784.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 601 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.8
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1875 priority) carries 872.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 673 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.1
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1873 priority) carries 1,221.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1880 priority) carries 918.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 704 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.8
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (2011 priority) carries 1,236.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.5
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1879 priority) carries 1,221.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1871 priority) carries 685.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 538 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1908 priority) carries 1,218.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1872 priority) carries 1,221.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1871 priority) carries 778.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 594 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.7
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1872 priority) carries 784.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 601 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.8
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1906 priority) carries 1,236.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.5
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1880 priority) carries 1,221.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1872 priority) carries 783.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 601 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.7
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (2000 priority) carries 1,236.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.5
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1992 priority) carries 1,236.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.5
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1873 priority) carries 821.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 627 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.3
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1893 priority) carries 1,176.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 879 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.7
66Critical call exposurePLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL (1873 priority) carries 830.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.5
60Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~127 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.76.6
53Augmentation condition not verifiedPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 24% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.8
51Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10303927 (128 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by PLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL) now spans 12 parcels held by 9 owner(s) — 12 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
50Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 41% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 56-point cliff under stress.83.6
50Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 54% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.0
50Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
49Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10301861 (113 ac, CORN, served by PLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL) now spans 9 parcels held by 4 owner(s) — 9 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
49Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 49% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
48Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 51% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.6
48Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 52% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 49-point cliff under stress.73.5
47Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 54% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.3
47Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 55% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.3
47Drought reliability cliffPLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 55% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.1
46Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10301292 (57 ac, CORN, served by PLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL) now spans 3 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.98.1
46Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10306297 (54 ac, CORN, served by PLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL) now spans 3 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.98.1
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10301281 (45 ac, ALFALFA, served by PLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.9
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10303364 (42 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by PLEASANT VALLEY LAKE CNL) now spans 4 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0