BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Parcel-split allocation risk / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_parcel-split-allocation-risk_0114

Parcel-split allocation risk

verifiedLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL →

Irrigated place D1-2020-10100293 (136 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL) now spans 6 parcels held by 4 owner(s) — 6 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.

Priority
50.7
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.80
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.27
urgency0.50
confidence0.80
freshness0.50
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300919
state
CO
county
WELD
owners
["KEADLE JOSHUA AARON","GABEL INVESTMENTS LLC","GABEL STEVEN P","FORD THOMAS F"]
latitude
40.548494
place_id
D1-2020-10100293
longitude
-104.561949
parcel_ids
["08123-071128200002","08123-071121300010","08123-071128200056","08123-071121300009","08123-071128200055","08123-071121000005"]
county_fips
08123
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300919"}
structure_name
LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL
score_components
{"owners":4,"parcels":6,"place_acres":136,"parcels_without_instrument":6}
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_parcel-split-allocation-risk_0114
record
D1-2020-10100293 @ water_irrigated_places
signal
signal:parcel-split-allocation-risk
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1893 priority) carries 1,056.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.9
95Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1890 priority) carries 1,002.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 742 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.0
95Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1878 priority) carries 751.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 576 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
95Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1901 priority) carries 1,019.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.3
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.79.6
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~143 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 6 comparable seasons.81.7
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~152 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.78.6
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
83Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1871 priority) carries 664.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 507 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.0
80Drought reliability cliffLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
80Critical caller value-at-riskLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL's observed call reaches 4199 parcels — 42,143 coverage-weighted acres, $57.5M assessed value, 2489 distinct owners — through the 65 structures it has put out of priority (293,036.8 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).98.1
79Augmentation condition not verifiedLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Drought reliability cliffLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 39% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 56-point cliff under stress.84.4
78Drought reliability cliffLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 42% dry → 29% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 55-point cliff under stress.82.5
78Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1875 priority) carries 751.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 576 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
78Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~125 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.75.9
77Drought reliability cliffLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 49% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
77Basin chokepoint callerLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL has put 1624 decreed rights (38,393 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 293,036.8 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 46.46.0
72Underused water asset616.48852718 ac (WELD County, HIGH PLAINS DAIRY LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Underused water asset478.72220077 ac (WELD County, BASHOR JOEL): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Underused water asset3020.9530856 ac (WELD County, WALCKER CHRISTINE LOUISE (UND 1/3)): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Underused water asset491.77773214 ac (WELD County, BOOTH LAND & LIVESTOCK COMPANY): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~141 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 6 comparable seasons.81.1
70Decree-to-current-use conflict48.10144502 ac commercial parcel is served by LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.90.2
69Augmentation condition not verifiedLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.80.0
68Drought reliability cliffLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 88% in median years → 58% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.4
66Underused water asset320.76682072 ac (WELD County, WILSON RODNEY DEAN): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
66Underused water asset320.77016203 ac (WELD County, KOHLHOFF SIEGFRIED): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1873 priority) carries 1,057.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.9
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1872 priority) carries 1,057.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.9
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1873 priority) carries 711.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 544 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.7
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1914 priority) carries 1,056.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.9
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1873 priority) carries 711.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 544 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.7
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1914 priority) carries 1,056.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.9
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1908 priority) carries 1,054.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.8
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1872 priority) carries 675 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 518 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.1
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1893 priority) carries 1,012.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.2
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1872 priority) carries 673.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 518 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.1
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1881 priority) carries 754.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 576 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (2011 priority) carries 1,072.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (2003 priority) carries 1,072.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1880 priority) carries 754.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 576 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1871 priority) carries 668.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 511 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.0
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1992 priority) carries 1,072.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1992 priority) carries 1,072.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1878 priority) carries 751.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 576 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1992 priority) carries 1,072.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1986 priority) carries 1,072.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1875 priority) carries 751.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 576 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureLARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (1906 priority) carries 1,072.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 775 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1