BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_4120

Drought reliability cliff

candidateLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH →

LEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.

Priority
50.9
composite 0–100
Raw score
87.2
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.83
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0700601
state
CO
county
JEFFERSON
admin_no
18415
division
1
latitude
39.76494
right_id
0700601-18415.00000
longitude
-105.205996
county_fips
08059
identifiers
{"wdid":"0700601"}
decreed_uses
01234568AWX
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CLEAR CREEK
seniority_rank
7586
structure_name
LEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
7
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":58,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.47,"reliability_median":0.86,"reliability_severe":0.27}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1900-06-02
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_4120
record
0700601-18415.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
75Basin chokepoint callerLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH has put 1384 decreed rights (12,663 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 27,641.3 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 30.6.30.6
73Augmentation condition not verifiedLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.84.7
71Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1991 priority) carries 959.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 753 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
70Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1869 priority) carries 658.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 9 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (173.8 day-eq). 499 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.9
67Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1988 priority) carries 959.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 753 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1871 priority) carries 742.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (181.8 day-eq). 590 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.1
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1872 priority) carries 742.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (181.8 day-eq). 590 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.1
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1865 priority) carries 626.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 8 senior caller(s); dominant caller CLEAR CR PLATTE RIVER D (168.4 day-eq). 471 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.4
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1865 priority) carries 630.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 8 senior caller(s); dominant caller CLEAR CR PLATTE RIVER D (168.4 day-eq). 473 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.5
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1870 priority) carries 658.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 9 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (173.8 day-eq). 499 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.9
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1871 priority) carries 666.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 9 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (181.8 day-eq). 505 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.0
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1877 priority) carries 929.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 733 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1878 priority) carries 929.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 733 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1881 priority) carries 929.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 733 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1886 priority) carries 929.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 733 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1895 priority) carries 932.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 738 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1872 priority) carries 932.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 738 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1877 priority) carries 932.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 738 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1886 priority) carries 932.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 738 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1900 priority) carries 932.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 738 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1902 priority) carries 932.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 738 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1905 priority) carries 959.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 753 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1993 priority) carries 959.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 753 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (2009 priority) carries 959.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 753 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
66Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1868 priority) carries 657.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 8 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (173.8 day-eq). 499 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.9
65Critical caller value-at-riskLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH's observed call reaches 86 parcels — 942 coverage-weighted acres, $19.2M assessed value, 60 distinct owners — through the 1 structures it has put out of priority (27,641.3 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).63.0
65Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1865 priority) carries 539.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 7 senior caller(s); dominant caller CLEAR CR PLATTE RIVER D (168.4 day-eq). 401 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.46.3
65Critical call exposureLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH (1864 priority) carries 539.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 7 senior caller(s); dominant caller CLEAR CR PLATTE RIVER D (168.4 day-eq). 401 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.46.3
63Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~159 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.98.9
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~111 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.83.5
59Augmentation condition not verifiedLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.67.5
58Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~159 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.98.9
57Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 44% dry → 26% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.87.9
53Augmentation condition not verifiedLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
52Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 44% dry → 26% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.87.9
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 44% dry → 26% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.87.9
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 26% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.87.9
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 44% dry → 26% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.87.9
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.6
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.6
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.6
51Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.6
47Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 89% in median years → 60% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.70.0
47Drought reliability cliffLEE STEWART ESKINS DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 89% in median years → 60% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.70.0