BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3883

Drought reliability cliff

candidateCHURCH DITCH →

CHURCH DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 44% dry → 26% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.

Priority
79.6
composite 0–100
Raw score
87.9
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact1.00
urgency0.84
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0700540
state
CO
county
JEFFERSON
admin_no
20281
division
1
latitude
39.752394
right_id
0700540-20281.00000
longitude
-105.24525
county_fips
08059
identifiers
{"wdid":"0700540"}
decreed_uses
01234568AWX
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CLEAR CREEK
seniority_rank
8257
structure_name
CHURCH DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
7
decreed_rate_cfs
110.88
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":59,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.44,"reliability_median":0.84,"reliability_severe":0.26}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1905-07-12
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3883
record
0700540-20281.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1889 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
95Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1902 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
95Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1878 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
92Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1905 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
92Basin chokepoint callerCHURCH DITCH has put 3576 decreed rights (72,886 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 100,653.3 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 69.9.69.9
90Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1886 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~159 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.98.9
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
83Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1984 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
81Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1886 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
79Drought reliability cliffCHURCH DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
79Drought reliability cliffCHURCH DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
79Drought reliability cliffCHURCH DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
79Drought reliability cliffCHURCH DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
79Augmentation condition not verifiedCHURCH DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedCHURCH DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedCHURCH DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
78Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~159 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.98.9
77Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1889 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
77Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1888 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
77Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1996 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
75Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
75Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1865 priority) carries 559.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 8 senior caller(s); dominant caller CLEAR CR PLATTE RIVER D (168.4 day-eq). 414 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.47.8
74Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1981 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
73Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1881 priority) carries 863.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 675 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
72Drought reliability cliffCHURCH DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 44% dry → 26% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.87.9
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~159 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.98.9
70Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1895 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
70Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1889 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
70Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1887 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
70Drought reliability cliffCHURCH DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
69Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1878 priority) carries 863.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 675 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
69Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1877 priority) carries 863.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 675 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
68Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1997 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
67Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1997 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
67Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCHURCH DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~159 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.98.9
66Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1869 priority) carries 865.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
66Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1886 priority) carries 863.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 675 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
66Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1993 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
66Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1999 priority) carries 893.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
66Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1874 priority) carries 862.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 675 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
66Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1990 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
66Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1988 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
66Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1872 priority) carries 862.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 675 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
66Critical call exposureCHURCH DITCH (1986 priority) carries 892.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 695 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4