BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3392

Drought reliability cliff

candidateNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH →

NEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 79% in median years → 30% dry → 15% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 63-point cliff under stress.

Priority
81.3
composite 0–100
Raw score
95.2
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact1.00
urgency0.91
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0600902
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
31379
division
1
latitude
39.986091
right_id
0600902-31379.00000
longitude
-105.220561
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0600902"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SOUTH BOULDER CREEK
seniority_rank
12444
structure_name
NEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
6
decreed_rate_cfs
170
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":63,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.3,"reliability_median":0.79,"reliability_severe":0.15}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1935-11-30
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3392
record
0600902-31379.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1935 priority) carries 963.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 754 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.5
95Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1922 priority) carries 918.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 730 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.8
95Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1904 priority) carries 899.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 729 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.5
95Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1929 priority) carries 919.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 731 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.8
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~171 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~180 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~182 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~179 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
82Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 34% dry → 16% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.98.7
82Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 34% dry → 16% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.98.6
81Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 36% dry → 20% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 62-point cliff under stress.93.6
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1892 priority) carries 788.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 633 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.8
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1897 priority) carries 788.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 633 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.8
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1906 priority) carries 904.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 729 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.6
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1915 priority) carries 919.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 731 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.8
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1990 priority) carries 1,069.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 829 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1997 priority) carries 1,069.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 829 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (2011 priority) carries 1,069.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 829 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1873 priority) carries 740.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 592 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.1
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1865 priority) carries 564.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 443 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.5
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1865 priority) carries 581.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 457 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.7
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1866 priority) carries 682.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 533 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.2
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1866 priority) carries 689.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 534 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1866 priority) carries 689.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 534 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1870 priority) carries 701.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 546 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1870 priority) carries 701.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 546 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.5
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1872 priority) carries 703.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 546 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.6
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1881 priority) carries 761 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 611 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH (1884 priority) carries 761 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (128.8 day-eq). 611 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
54Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 34% dry → 16% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.98.7
53Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 35% dry → 18% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 64-point cliff under stress.95.6
53Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
51Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
51Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
49Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.79.5
49Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.79.5
49Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
49Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
48Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 48% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.1
47Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.69.8
47Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.69.8
47Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.6
46Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.9
46Drought reliability cliffNEW DRY CR CARRIER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.9