BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3273

Drought reliability cliff

candidateGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION

GODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 48% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.

Priority
59.8
composite 0–100
Raw score
80.3
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.40
urgency0.76
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0600783
state
CO
county
WELD
admin_no
56613.55216
division
1
latitude
40.109251
right_id
0600783-56613.55216
longitude
-105.036725
county_fips
08123
identifiers
{"wdid":"0600783"}
decreed_uses
123456AX
legal_status
Conditional
water_source
BOULDER CREEK
seniority_rank
45670
structure_name
GODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
6
decreed_rate_cfs
40
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":54,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.48,"reliability_median":0.84,"reliability_severe":0.3}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
2001-03-05
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3273
record
0600783-56613.55216 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
85Critical call exposureGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION (2016 priority) carries 933.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (201.1 day-eq). 691 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~149 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.95.7
75Critical call exposureGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION (2001 priority) carries 933.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (201.1 day-eq). 691 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
75Critical call exposureGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION (1997 priority) carries 931.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (201.1 day-eq). 691 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
72Critical call exposureGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION (2006 priority) carries 933.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (201.1 day-eq). 691 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
72Drought reliability cliffGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 48% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3
67Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~149 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.95.7
67Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~149 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.95.7
66Critical call exposureGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION (2016 priority) carries 933.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (201.1 day-eq). 691 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION (2017 priority) carries 933.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (201.1 day-eq). 691 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
64Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~149 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.95.7
60Drought reliability cliffGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 48% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3
57Drought reliability cliffGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 48% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3
49Drought reliability cliffGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 48% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3
49Drought reliability cliffGODDING IDAHO CREEK DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 48% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3