BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3098

Drought reliability cliff

candidateS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH →

S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.

Priority
49.1
composite 0–100
Raw score
79.5
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.76
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0600588
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
12724
division
1
latitude
39.953388
right_id
0600588-12724.00000
longitude
-105.241693
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0600588"}
decreed_uses
12568W
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SOUTH BOULDER CREEK
seniority_rank
5819
structure_name
S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
6
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":53,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.47,"reliability_median":0.86,"reliability_severe":0.33}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1884-11-01
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_3098
record
0600588-12724.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
88Critical caller value-at-riskS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH's observed call reaches 740 parcels — 8,596 coverage-weighted acres, $209.3M assessed value, 451 distinct owners — through the 55 structures it has put out of priority (59,119.4 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).100.0
67Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1868 priority) carries 560.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 427 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1873 priority) carries 611.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 485 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.2
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1980 priority) carries 958.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 728 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1985 priority) carries 958.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 728 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1990 priority) carries 958.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 728 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1997 priority) carries 958.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 728 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (2011 priority) carries 958.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 728 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.4
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1866 priority) carries 553.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 426 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.3
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1866 priority) carries 560.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 427 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1866 priority) carries 560.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 427 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1870 priority) carries 572.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 439 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.6
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1870 priority) carries 572.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 439 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.6
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1872 priority) carries 574.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 439 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.6
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1881 priority) carries 632.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 504 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.5
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1884 priority) carries 632.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 504 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.5
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1892 priority) carries 659.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 526 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.9
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1897 priority) carries 659.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 526 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.9
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1906 priority) carries 788 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 628 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.8
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1915 priority) carries 803 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller COMMUNITY DITCH (142.6 day-eq). 630 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.0
66Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1871 priority) carries 574.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 439 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.6
65Critical call exposureS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH (1865 priority) carries 533.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller HOWARD DITCH (97.3 day-eq). 415 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.47.5
65Augmentation condition not verifiedS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.74.4
58Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~124 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HOWARD DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 4 comparable seasons.69.7
54Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 34% dry → 16% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.98.7
53Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 35% dry → 18% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 64-point cliff under stress.95.6
53Augmentation condition not verifiedS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
51Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
51Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
51Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
51Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 73% in median years → 22% dry → 13% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.4
49Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10600062 (112 ac, ALFALFA, served by S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
49Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 53-point cliff under stress.79.5
49Underused water asset93.411 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
49Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 32% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
48Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 48% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.1
47Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.9
47Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.69.8
47Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.69.8
47Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10611694 (71 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.98.4
47Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.6
47Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.6
46Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.9
46Drought reliability cliffS BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 52% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.9
46Underused water asset52.8 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
45Underused water asset39.075 ac (BOULDER County, YOUNG DENISE KAY REV TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
44Underused water asset33.014 ac (BOULDER County, CITY OF BOULDER): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on S BOULDER BEAR CR DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8