BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2653

Drought reliability cliff

candidateST VRAIN CREEK PUMP STATION 1

ST VRAIN CREEK PUMP STATION 1: modeled irrigation-season reliability 80% in median years → 28% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.

Priority
55.1
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency1.00
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0501074
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
62392
division
1
latitude
40.155813
right_id
0501074-62392.00000
longitude
-105.097773
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0501074"}
decreed_uses
012AC
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SAINT VRAIN CREEK
seniority_rank
55264
structure_name
ST VRAIN CREEK PUMP STATION 1
structure_type
PUMP
water_district
5
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":74,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.28,"reliability_median":0.8,"reliability_severe":0.06}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
2020-10-27
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2653
record
0501074-62392.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
73Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN CREEK PUMP STATION 1: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
70Critical call exposureST VRAIN CREEK PUMP STATION 1 (2021 priority) carries 1,078.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 53 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 885 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
66Critical call exposureST VRAIN CREEK PUMP STATION 1 (2020 priority) carries 1,078.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 53 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 885 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentST VRAIN CREEK PUMP STATION 1, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~201 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
60Drought reliability cliffST VRAIN CREEK PUMP STATION 1: modeled irrigation-season reliability 80% in median years → 28% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
53Augmentation condition not verifiedST VRAIN CREEK PUMP STATION 1: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5