BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2369

Drought reliability cliff

candidateLAST CHANCE DITCH →

LAST CHANCE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 80% in median years → 28% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.

Priority
68.7
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.50
urgency1.00
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0500589
state
CO
county
WELD
admin_no
60996.57242
division
1
latitude
40.170134
right_id
0500589-60996.57242
longitude
-104.991319
county_fips
08123
identifiers
{"wdid":"0500589"}
decreed_uses
14567ACR
legal_status
Conditional
water_source
SAINT VRAIN CREEK
seniority_rank
53750
structure_name
LAST CHANCE DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
5
decreed_rate_cfs
50
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":74,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.28,"reliability_median":0.8,"reliability_severe":0.06}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
2006-09-21
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2369
record
0500589-60996.57242 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
90Critical call exposureLAST CHANCE DITCH (2014 priority) carries 1,078.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 52 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 885 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
89Critical call exposureLAST CHANCE DITCH (1872 priority) carries 757.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (151.2 day-eq). 620 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLAST CHANCE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~201 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
84Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLAST CHANCE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~144 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.94.1
84Drought reliability cliffLAST CHANCE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 80% in median years → 28% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedLAST CHANCE DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
77Critical call exposureLAST CHANCE DITCH (2006 priority) carries 1,078.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 52 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 885 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
77Drought reliability cliffLAST CHANCE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 54% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.3
71Critical call exposureLAST CHANCE DITCH (2019 priority) carries 1,078.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 52 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 885 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLAST CHANCE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~201 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
66Critical call exposureLAST CHANCE DITCH (2001 priority) carries 1,078.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 52 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 885 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
65Critical call exposureLAST CHANCE DITCH (2001 priority) carries 1,073.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 50 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH (156.8 day-eq). 884 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.1
63Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLAST CHANCE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~201 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
61Drought reliability cliffLAST CHANCE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 80% in median years → 28% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
58Underused water asset209.850882 ac (WELD County, H & J PROPERTY LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
56Underused water asset190.09509782 ac (WELD County, READY MIXED CONCRETE COMPANY): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
56Underused water asset184.50452805 ac (WELD County, RAPTOR MATERIALS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
55Drought reliability cliffLAST CHANCE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 80% in median years → 28% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
54Drought reliability cliffLAST CHANCE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 28% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
54Underused water asset165.3035969 ac (WELD County, FIRESTONE TOWN OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
54Underused water asset158.87209607 ac (WELD County, RAPTOR MATERIALS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
53Underused water asset148.10751605 ac (WELD County, RAPTOR MATERIALS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
53Augmentation condition not verifiedLAST CHANCE DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.2
50Underused water asset114.55711534 ac (WELD County, READY MIXED CONCRETE COMPANY): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
50Underused water asset103.70750141 ac (WELD County, ACORD ST VRAIN VALLEY RANCH LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
48Underused water asset82.54578462 ac (WELD County, MORRIS EARL GEOFFREY): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
47Underused water asset74.28525852 ac (WELD County, ACORD ST VRAIN VALLEY RANCH LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
47Underused water asset73.74402846 ac (WELD County, FIRESTONE TOWN OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
47Underused water asset66.68169006 ac (WELD County, VANHOESEN MICHELLE): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
46Underused water asset57.14785002 ac (WELD County, FIRESTONE TOWN OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
46Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10202735 (55 ac, CORN, served by LAST CHANCE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.89.1
46Decree-to-current-use conflict6.11035467 ac commercial parcel is served by LAST CHANCE DITCH, whose decree permits only [1]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.68.9
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10500814 (37 ac, ALFALFA, served by LAST CHANCE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.7
45Underused water asset37.73606939 ac (WELD County, FRENCH FAMILY TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
44Underused water asset33.40001004 ac (WELD County, 6856 CR 26 LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
44Decree-to-current-use conflict6.29650291 ac res vacant parcel is served by LAST CHANCE DITCH, whose decree permits only [1]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.66.6
44Decree-to-current-use conflict6.29650291 ac res vacant parcel is served by LAST CHANCE DITCH, whose decree permits only [1]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.66.6
44Decree-to-current-use conflict6.29650291 ac res vacant parcel is served by LAST CHANCE DITCH, whose decree permits only [1]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.66.6
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10506051 (25 ac, CORN, served by LAST CHANCE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.5
44Underused water asset28.04646648 ac (WELD County, FIRESTONE TOWN OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
44Underused water asset26.41438623 ac (WELD County, FIRESTONE TOWN OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
44Decree-to-current-use conflict5.90142385 ac res vacant parcel is served by LAST CHANCE DITCH, whose decree permits only [1]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.60.9
44Decree-to-current-use conflict5.90142385 ac res vacant parcel is served by LAST CHANCE DITCH, whose decree permits only [1]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.64.7
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10506156 (20 ac, ALFALFA, served by LAST CHANCE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.4
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10504893 (18 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by LAST CHANCE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.4
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10504892 (18 ac, ALFALFA, served by LAST CHANCE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.4
44Underused water asset22.18771258 ac (WELD County, NELSON LEO BLAKE): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAST CHANCE DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.0
43Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10502116 (16 ac, ALFALFA, served by LAST CHANCE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.3
43Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10504147 (14 ac, CORN, served by LAST CHANCE DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.97.3
43Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10506054 (12 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by LAST CHANCE DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0