BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2270

Drought reliability cliff

candidateHIGHLAND DITCH →

HIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.

Priority
83.7
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact1.00
urgency1.00
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0500526
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
29219
division
1
latitude
40.215405
right_id
0500526-29219.00000
longitude
-105.259321
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0500526"}
decreed_uses
02X
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
SAINT VRAIN CREEK
seniority_rank
11269
structure_name
HIGHLAND DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
5
decreed_rate_cfs
450
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":74,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.29,"reliability_median":0.81,"reliability_severe":0.07}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1929-12-31
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2270
record
0500526-29219.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1929 priority) carries 889.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 48 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 730 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.4
95Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1926 priority) carries 889.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 48 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 730 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.3
95Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1879 priority) carries 719.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 595 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.8
95Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1871 priority) carries 605 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (118.3 day-eq). 508 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.1
95Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1902 priority) carries 830.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 40 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 692 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.5
95Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1967 priority) carries 896.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 739 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.5
95Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1881 priority) carries 740.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 627 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.1
95Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1922 priority) carries 889.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 48 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 730 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.3
90Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1918 priority) carries 884.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 46 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 730 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.3
90Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1986 priority) carries 896.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 49 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 739 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.5
88Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1902 priority) carries 830.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 40 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 692 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.5
88Critical caller value-at-riskHIGHLAND DITCH's observed call reaches 2057 parcels — 17,853 coverage-weighted acres, $213.7M assessed value, 703 distinct owners — through the 425 structures it has put out of priority (101,768.2 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~114 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.78.5
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~177 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.98.7
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~192 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~199 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~171 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.96.8
84Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentHIGHLAND DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~192 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller JAMES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 36% dry → 10% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 72-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 29% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 30% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 31% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffHIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 81% in median years → 30% dry → 7% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.100.0
82Drought reliability cliffHIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 45% dry → 18% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.99.6
82Drought reliability cliffHIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 36% dry → 10% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 72-point cliff under stress.100.0
81Drought reliability cliffHIGHLAND DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 45% dry → 20% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 64-point cliff under stress.95.6
79Augmentation condition not verifiedHIGHLAND DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedHIGHLAND DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
77Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1901 priority) carries 829.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 38 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 692 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.4
77Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1895 priority) carries 828.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 37 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 692 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.4
77Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1874 priority) carries 609.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (119.9 day-eq). 511 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.2
77Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1874 priority) carries 884.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 46 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 730 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.3
76Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1878 priority) carries 715.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 590 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.7
75Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1890 priority) carries 821.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 34 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 688 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.3
73Augmentation condition not verifiedHIGHLAND DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
73Decree-to-current-use conflict47.90288725 ac commercial parcel is served by HIGHLAND DITCH, whose decree permits only [2APWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.90.6
73Decree-to-current-use conflict39.66832821 ac commercial parcel is served by HIGHLAND DITCH, whose decree permits only [2APWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.95.1
73Decree-to-current-use conflict39.66832821 ac commercial parcel is served by HIGHLAND DITCH, whose decree permits only [2APWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.89.0
73Decree-to-current-use conflict65.3986099 ac commercial parcel is served by HIGHLAND DITCH, whose decree permits only [2APWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.88.3
73Decree-to-current-use conflict78.0459259 ac residential parcel is served by HIGHLAND DITCH, whose decree permits only [2APWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.88.3
72Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1880 priority) carries 791.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 664 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.9
72Critical call exposureHIGHLAND DITCH (1896 priority) carries 828.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 37 senior caller(s); dominant caller JAMES DITCH (130.6 day-eq). 692 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.4
72Underused water asset589.8605904 ac (WELD County, TWIN VIEW LAND LLLP): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on HIGHLAND DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
72Underused water asset453.05329473 ac (WELD County, PUBLIC SERVICE CO OF COLO): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on HIGHLAND DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8