Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2037
BIG T DRAKE/IDYLWILD M F: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.
Priority
68.7
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
- wdid
- 0402111
- state
- CO
- county
- LARIMER
- admin_no
- 51087
- division
- 1
- latitude
- 40.432512
- right_id
- 0402111-51087.00000
- longitude
- -105.338791
- county_fips
- 08069
- identifiers
- {"wdid":"0402111"}
- decreed_uses
- M
- legal_status
- Absolute
- water_source
- BIG THOMPSON RIVER
- seniority_rank
- 36277
- structure_name
- BIG T DRAKE/IDYLWILD M F
- structure_type
- MINIMUM FLOW
- water_district
- 4
- decreed_rate_cfs
- 50
- score_components
- {"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":71,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.17,"reliability_median":0.77,"reliability_severe":0.06}
- decreed_volume_af
- null
- appropriation_date
- 1989-11-14
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
- instance id
- siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_2037
- record
- 0402111-51087.00000 @ water_rights
- signal
- signal:drought-reliability-cliff
- definition
- v1
- genome
- v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
- epoch
- ep_wr_20260718
- lineage status
- resolved
- detected
- 2026-07-18 12:00:00
- valid from
- 2026-07-18 12:00:00
- source refs
- ["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record