BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1693

Drought reliability cliff

candidateBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D →

BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 35% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 61-point cliff under stress.

Priority
80.5
composite 0–100
Raw score
92.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact1.00
urgency0.88
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0400588
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
53691.50198
division
1
latitude
40.25905
right_id
0400588-53691.50198
longitude
-105.176041
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0400588"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
LITTLE THOMPSON RIVER
seniority_rank
39512
structure_name
BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
4
decreed_rate_cfs
400
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":61,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.35,"reliability_median":0.85,"reliability_severe":0.23}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1987-06-09
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1693
record
0400588-53691.50198 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1904 priority) carries 647.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 9 senior caller(s); dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH (380.3 day-eq). 513 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.7
95Critical call exposureBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1987 priority) carries 652.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 9 senior caller(s); dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH (382.2 day-eq). 513 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.8
86Critical call exposureBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1877 priority) carries 620.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 5 senior caller(s); dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH (380.3 day-eq). 513 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.3
86Critical call exposureBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1890 priority) carries 643.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 8 senior caller(s); dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH (380.3 day-eq). 513 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.7
86Critical call exposureBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1875 priority) carries 619.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 4 senior caller(s); dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH (380.3 day-eq). 513 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.3
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~164 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
81Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~140 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.92.8
81Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~155 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.97.6
81Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~140 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.92.8
79Augmentation condition not verifiedBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Drought reliability cliffBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 42% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.5
75Drought reliability cliffBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 45% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.4
74Critical call exposureBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1877 priority) carries 619.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 4 senior caller(s); dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH (380.3 day-eq). 513 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.3
73Drought reliability cliffBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 88% in median years → 48% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.5
73Drought reliability cliffBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 47% dry → 34% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.7
71Critical call exposureBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1875 priority) carries 609.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 3 senior caller(s); dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH (380.3 day-eq). 513 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.1
68Critical call exposureBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D (1975 priority) carries 652.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 9 senior caller(s); dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH (382.2 day-eq). 513 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.8
67Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~140 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.92.8
63Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~140 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.92.8
60Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~164 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OSBORNE CAYWOOD DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
60Drought reliability cliffBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 88% in median years → 48% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.5
57Drought reliability cliffBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 90% in median years → 51% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 55-point cliff under stress.83.1
55Drought reliability cliffBOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 35% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 61-point cliff under stress.92.0
53Underused water asset154.86341291 ac (WELD County, KIEHN CAROLYN R): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
49Underused water asset97.55331648 ac (WELD County, STEIN ADAM G): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
49Underused water asset96.29746126 ac (WELD County, BEBO MARITAL DEDUCTION TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
49Underused water asset91.86110717 ac (WELD County, ROCKWELL JEFFREY SCOTT(51%INT)): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
48Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10403663 (91 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 5 parcels held by 5 owner(s) — 5 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
48Underused water asset80.80278259 ac (WELD County, BEBO MARITAL DEDUCTION TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
47Underused water asset69.23754034 ac (WELD County, SCHELL MARK W): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
47Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10406966 (69 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 3 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.98.4
47Underused water asset62.6158601 ac (WELD County, SCHELL MARK W): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
47Underused water asset62.43695575 ac (WELD County, BERTHOUD TOWN OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
46Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10405433 (66 ac, CORN, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.89.3
46Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10403272 (63 ac, ALFALFA, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.89.3
46Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10409493 (63 ac, BARLEY, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.89.3
46Underused water asset56.24911931 ac (WELD County, BEBO MARITAL DEDUCTION TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
46Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10406656 (52 ac, BARLEY, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.89.0
45Underused water asset48.04382525 ac (WELD County, BEBO MARITAL DEDUCTION TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
45Underused water asset45.68364195 ac (WELD County, BEBO MARITAL DEDUCTION TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10403646 (43 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.9
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10401686 (38 ac, CORN, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.8
44Underused water asset34.79544496 ac (WELD County, BEBO MARITAL DEDUCTION TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.76.5
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10401343 (25 ac, CORN, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.5
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10415091 (21 ac, WHEAT_FALL, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.4
44Decree-to-current-use conflict2.73391642 ac residential parcel is served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D, whose decree permits only [01A]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.66.1
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10405615 (17 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.3
43Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10406657 (13 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by BOULDER LARIMER CO IRR MFG D) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.3