BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1632

Drought reliability cliff

candidateLOUDEN DITCH →

LOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 28% dry → 9% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 74-point cliff under stress.

Priority
72.5
composite 0–100
Raw score
100.0
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.63
urgency1.00
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0400530
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
24286.14209
division
1
latitude
40.417618
right_id
0400530-24286.14209
longitude
-105.189797
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0400530"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
BIG THOMPSON RIVER
seniority_rank
9553
structure_name
LOUDEN DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
4
decreed_rate_cfs
63
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":74,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.28,"reliability_median":0.82,"reliability_severe":0.09}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1888-11-25
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1632
record
0400530-24286.14209 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1907 priority) carries 1,082.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 790 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
95Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1902 priority) carries 937.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 680 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.1
95Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1883 priority) carries 761.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 573 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
87Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1877 priority) carries 648.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 475 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.7
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOUDEN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~138 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.83.2
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOUDEN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~178 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.96.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOUDEN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~201 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
84Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 80% in median years → 25% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
83Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1930 priority) carries 1,135.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 820 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.0
82Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 41% dry → 17% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.99.6
82Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOUDEN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~118 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.76.8
80Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1888 priority) carries 1,040.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 771 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.6
79Augmentation condition not verifiedLOUDEN DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
78Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOUDEN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~202 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
77Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 53% dry → 36% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.77.5
76Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 78% in median years → 20% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 73-point cliff under stress.100.0
74Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOUDEN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~195 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
72Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1871 priority) carries 560.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (141.7 day-eq). 423 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
72Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 90% in median years → 63% dry → 45% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.7
70Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1881 priority) carries 1,015.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 740 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.2
69Basin chokepoint callerLOUDEN DITCH has put 609 decreed rights (10,101 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 40,523.5 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 23.3.23.3
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1873 priority) carries 610.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 448 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.2
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1887 priority) carries 804.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 592 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.1
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1883 priority) carries 765.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 573 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.5
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1873 priority) carries 572.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 426 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.6
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1994 priority) carries 1,167.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 848 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.5
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1969 priority) carries 1,167.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 848 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.5
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1969 priority) carries 1,167.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 848 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.5
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1901 priority) carries 934.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 676 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.0
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1969 priority) carries 1,167.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 848 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.5
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1878 priority) carries 668.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.7 day-eq). 489 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.0
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (2002 priority) carries 1,167.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 848 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.5
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1873 priority) carries 629.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 464 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.4
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1872 priority) carries 560.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (141.7 day-eq). 423 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.4
66Critical call exposureLOUDEN DITCH (1880 priority) carries 672.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 494 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.1
64Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOUDEN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~91 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.68.1
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOUDEN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~190 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
60Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 29% dry → 11% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
54Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 41% dry → 17% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.99.6
53Augmentation condition not verifiedLOUDEN DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 49% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.7
50Drought reliability cliffLOUDEN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
49Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10401274 (108 ac, CORN, served by LOUDEN DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.90.2
49Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10411276 (102 ac, ALFALFA, served by LOUDEN DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.90.0
48Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10411275 (93 ac, ALFALFA, served by LOUDEN DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.98.9