BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1553

Drought reliability cliff

candidateLOVELAND PIPELINE →

LOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 49% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.

Priority
49.4
composite 0–100
Raw score
86.7
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.01
urgency0.83
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0400511
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
14691.13563
division
1
latitude
40.424817
right_id
0400511-14691.13563
longitude
-105.210553
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0400511"}
decreed_uses
2
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
BIG THOMPSON RIVER
seniority_rank
6610
structure_name
LOVELAND PIPELINE
structure_type
PIPELINE
water_district
4
decreed_rate_cfs
0.5
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":58,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.49,"reliability_median":0.86,"reliability_severe":0.28}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1887-02-18
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_1553
record
0400511-14691.13563 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
73Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1877 priority) carries 680.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 500 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.2
70Basin chokepoint callerLOVELAND PIPELINE has put 706 decreed rights (11,088 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 6,477.2 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 23.7.23.7
69Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1995 priority) carries 1,228.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 908 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.4
68Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1873 priority) carries 661.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 489 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.9
67Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1873 priority) carries 642.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 14 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 473 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.6
67Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1871 priority) carries 553.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (141.7 day-eq). 414 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.47.7
67Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1880 priority) carries 709.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 522 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.6
66Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1878 priority) carries 705.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.7 day-eq). 517 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.6
66Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (2002 priority) carries 1,228.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller BARNES DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 908 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.4
65Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOVELAND PIPELINE, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~118 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.76.8
65Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1901 priority) carries 997.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 740 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.0
65Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1873 priority) carries 604.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (143.9 day-eq). 451 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.1
65Augmentation condition not verifiedLOVELAND PIPELINE: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.74.4
65Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1872 priority) carries 592.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 13 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (141.7 day-eq). 448 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.48.9
65Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1887 priority) carries 867.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 656 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
65Critical call exposureLOVELAND PIPELINE (1883 priority) carries 828.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL (149.8 day-eq). 637 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.4
63Augmentation condition not verifiedLOVELAND PIPELINE: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.72.7
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOVELAND PIPELINE, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~202 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller BARNES DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.100.0
59Drought reliability cliffLOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
59Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOVELAND PIPELINE, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~114 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.75.5
59Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOVELAND PIPELINE, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~112 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.74.8
59Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOVELAND PIPELINE, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~91 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.68.1
58Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLOVELAND PIPELINE, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~125 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS IRRIGATION CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.5 over 6 comparable seasons.79.0
55Drought reliability cliffLOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 77% in median years → 17% dry → 6% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 71-point cliff under stress.100.0
55Drought reliability cliffLOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 90% in median years → 63% dry → 45% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 45-point cliff under stress.67.7
53Drought reliability cliffLOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 41% dry → 17% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 66-point cliff under stress.99.6
48Drought reliability cliffLOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 89% in median years → 60% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 48-point cliff under stress.71.6
48Drought reliability cliffLOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 51% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
47Drought reliability cliffLOVELAND PIPELINE: modeled irrigation-season reliability 90% in median years → 61% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.70.9