BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0585

Drought reliability cliff

candidateOGILVY DITCH →

OGILVY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.

Priority
51.2
composite 0–100
Raw score
88.3
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.84
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300937
state
CO
county
WELD
admin_no
54769
division
1
latitude
40.422556
right_id
0300937-54769.00000
longitude
-104.670179
county_fips
08123
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300937"}
decreed_uses
2X
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
41033
structure_name
OGILVY DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":59,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.32,"reliability_median":0.82,"reliability_severe":0.23}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1999-12-14
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0585
record
0300937-54769.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureOGILVY DITCH (1986 priority) carries 1,036.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 777 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.5
95Critical call exposureOGILVY DITCH (1999 priority) carries 1,036.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 777 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.5
90Critical call exposureOGILVY DITCH (2007 priority) carries 1,036.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 777 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.5
88Critical caller value-at-riskOGILVY DITCH's observed call reaches 7119 parcels — 73,976 coverage-weighted acres, $134.7M assessed value, 4008 distinct owners — through the 705 structures it has put out of priority (260,159.7 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).100.0
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentOGILVY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.94.9
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentOGILVY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.94.9
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentOGILVY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.94.9
80Drought reliability cliffOGILVY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
80Drought reliability cliffOGILVY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
80Drought reliability cliffOGILVY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
80Critical call exposureOGILVY DITCH (1881 priority) carries 966.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 744 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.5
79Augmentation condition not verifiedOGILVY DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
79Augmentation condition not verifiedOGILVY DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
73Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentOGILVY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~152 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.90.7
73Basin chokepoint callerOGILVY DITCH has put 1101 decreed rights (37,850 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 260,159.7 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 40.5.40.5
72Critical call exposureOGILVY DITCH (1881 priority) carries 966.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 744 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.5
72Critical call exposureOGILVY DITCH (2012 priority) carries 1,036.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 777 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.5
72Underused water asset488.69618368 ac (WELD County, S L W RANCH COMPANY): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
70Critical call exposureOGILVY DITCH (2015 priority) carries 1,036.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 777 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.5
66Drought reliability cliffOGILVY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 42% dry → 29% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 55-point cliff under stress.82.5
66Critical call exposureOGILVY DITCH (1986 priority) carries 1,036.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 777 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.5
66Critical call exposureOGILVY DITCH (1999 priority) carries 1,036.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 777 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.55.5
65Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentOGILVY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~152 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.90.7
64Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentOGILVY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.94.9
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentOGILVY DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.94.9
61Underused water asset250.35987791 ac (WELD County, WACKER DONALD G): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
59Drought reliability cliffOGILVY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
58Drought reliability cliffOGILVY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 42% dry → 29% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 55-point cliff under stress.82.5
56Drought reliability cliffOGILVY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
54Underused water asset162.08359528 ac (WELD County, SLW FARM COMPANY LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
54Underused water asset161.90530047 ac (WELD County, SLW FARM COMPANY LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
54Underused water asset155.40958372 ac (WELD County, SLW RANCH CO): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
52Underused water asset141.63136684 ac (WELD County, WACKER DONALD G): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
51Underused water asset126.6982457 ac (WELD County, C&S INC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
51Drought reliability cliffOGILVY DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10112558 (129 ac, ALFALFA, served by OGILVY DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.90.6
50Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10101286 (119 ac, CORN, served by OGILVY DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.90.4
50Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10101884 (118 ac, CORN, served by OGILVY DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.99.4
49Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10108755 (101 ac, ALFALFA, served by OGILVY DITCH) now spans 6 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 6 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
48Underused water asset87.78683941 ac (WELD County, SEYLER KERSEY FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
48Underused water asset86.53302056 ac (WELD County, COCKROFT DAIRY FARM LLLP): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
48Underused water asset82.88995585 ac (WELD County, CORPORATION OF THE PRESIDING BISHOP OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
48Underused water asset80.91415417 ac (WELD County, CROW CREEK FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
48Underused water asset80.35810193 ac (WELD County, HOLMAN DAVID A): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
48Underused water asset80.3669159 ac (WELD County, PETERSON ARTHUR R & JUDITH T (TRUST)): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
48Underused water asset80.00710383 ac (WELD County, HOLMAN DAVID A): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
48Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10102646 (87 ac, CORN, served by OGILVY DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
48Underused water asset75.94213285 ac (WELD County, REYNOLDS SCOT A): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
48Underused water asset75.29279571 ac (WELD County, MCGLOTHLIN FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on OGILVY DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.75.7
47Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10104693 (78 ac, CORN, served by OGILVY DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.89.6