BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0575

Drought reliability cliff

candidateBOYD FREEMAN DITCH →

BOYD FREEMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 55% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.

Priority
46.7
composite 0–100
Raw score
69.4
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.66
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300935
state
CO
county
WELD
admin_no
7944
division
1
latitude
40.440805
right_id
0300935-7944.00000
longitude
-104.764656
county_fips
08123
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300935"}
decreed_uses
2X
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
3106
structure_name
BOYD FREEMAN DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":46,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.55,"reliability_median":0.87,"reliability_severe":0.41}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1871-10-01
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0575
record
0300935-7944.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
79Augmentation condition not verifiedBOYD FREEMAN DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
78Critical call exposureBOYD FREEMAN DITCH (1998 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
78Critical call exposureBOYD FREEMAN DITCH (1999 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
71Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOYD FREEMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
71Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentBOYD FREEMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
66Drought reliability cliffBOYD FREEMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
66Drought reliability cliffBOYD FREEMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
66Critical call exposureBOYD FREEMAN DITCH (1999 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
66Critical call exposureBOYD FREEMAN DITCH (1873 priority) carries 866.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 663 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
66Critical call exposureBOYD FREEMAN DITCH (1872 priority) carries 820.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.3
66Critical call exposureBOYD FREEMAN DITCH (1871 priority) carries 810.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 621 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.2
53Augmentation condition not verifiedBOYD FREEMAN DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffBOYD FREEMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
48Drought reliability cliffBOYD FREEMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 51% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.6
47Drought reliability cliffBOYD FREEMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 54% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.0
43Underused water asset17.81687489 ac (WELD County, MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on BOYD FREEMAN DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8