BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0511

Drought reliability cliff

candidateFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH →

FOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 49% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.

Priority
48.8
composite 0–100
Raw score
78.2
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.74
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300927
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
9236
division
1
latitude
40.559277
right_id
0300927-9236.00000
longitude
-105.020091
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300927"}
decreed_uses
2
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
4045
structure_name
FOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":52,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.49,"reliability_median":0.85,"reliability_severe":0.33}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1875-04-15
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0511
record
0300927-9236.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
76Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (2014 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
69Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1871 priority) carries 814.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 625 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.2
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1872 priority) carries 819.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.3
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1872 priority) carries 821 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.3
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1873 priority) carries 857.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 658 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1873 priority) carries 857.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 658 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1873 priority) carries 866.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 663 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1875 priority) carries 909.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 704 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.6
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1878 priority) carries 909.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 704 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.6
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1880 priority) carries 955.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 735 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1893 priority) carries 1,213.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 24 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 910 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.2
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1908 priority) carries 1,254.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1914 priority) carries 1,257.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1914 priority) carries 1,257.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1872 priority) carries 1,258 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 31 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1873 priority) carries 1,258 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 31 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1879 priority) carries 1,258 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 31 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1880 priority) carries 1,258 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 31 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1906 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1986 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1992 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1992 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1881 priority) carries 955.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 735 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (1871 priority) carries 722 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 569 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.8
66Critical call exposureFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH (2015 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
63Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
53Augmentation condition not verifiedFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 24% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.8
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 41% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 56-point cliff under stress.83.6
50Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
50Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
49Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 49% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
48Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 51% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.6
48Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 52% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 49-point cliff under stress.73.5
48Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 52% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 49-point cliff under stress.73.5
47Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 54% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.3
47Drought reliability cliffFOSSIL CREEK INLET DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 55% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.3