BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0495

Drought reliability cliff

candidateCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL

CACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.

Priority
51.2
composite 0–100
Raw score
88.3
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.84
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300924
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
52210
division
1
latitude
40.577071
right_id
0300924-52210.00000
longitude
-105.04759
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300924"}
decreed_uses
X
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
37029
structure_name
CACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":59,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.32,"reliability_median":0.82,"reliability_severe":0.23}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1992-12-11
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0495
record
0300924-52210.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
80Critical call exposureCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL (1892 priority) carries 1,193.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 877 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.9
80Critical call exposureCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL (1902 priority) carries 1,220.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 26 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 882 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
73Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~154 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.79.3
73Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~160 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.81.2
68Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 36% dry → 25% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.6
67Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 41% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 56-point cliff under stress.83.6
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL (1992 priority) carries 1,252.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 901 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
62Basin chokepoint callerCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL has put 1633 decreed rights (40,971 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 33,150.4 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2023. Caller Power Index 36.4.36.4
53Augmentation condition not verifiedCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedCACHE LA PODR RES INLET CANAL: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5