BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0412

Drought reliability cliff

candidateCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH →

CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 55% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.

Priority
46.6
composite 0–100
Raw score
69.3
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.66
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300915
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
7953
division
1
latitude
40.626197
right_id
0300915-7953.00000
longitude
-105.151556
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300915"}
decreed_uses
128
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
3139
structure_name
CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":46,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.55,"reliability_median":0.87,"reliability_severe":0.41}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1871-10-10
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0412
record
0300915-7953.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
79Critical caller value-at-riskCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH's observed call reaches 1919 parcels — 29,966 coverage-weighted acres, $54.4M assessed value, 1155 distinct owners — through the 1 structures it has put out of priority (166,233.7 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).95.8
76Basin chokepoint callerCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH has put 1530 decreed rights (40,963 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 166,233.7 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 43.4.43.4
70Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1873 priority) carries 757.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 584 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1914 priority) carries 1,147.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 855 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.2
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1914 priority) carries 1,147.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 855 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.2
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1992 priority) carries 1,163.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 855 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.5
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (2003 priority) carries 1,163.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 855 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.5
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1871 priority) carries 617.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 495 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.3
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1871 priority) carries 710.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 551 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.7
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1872 priority) carries 715.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 558 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.7
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1873 priority) carries 753.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 584 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1873 priority) carries 753.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 584 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.3
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1873 priority) carries 757.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 584 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1878 priority) carries 799.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 625 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.0
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1880 priority) carries 845.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 656 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.7
66Critical call exposureCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH (1881 priority) carries 845.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 656 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.7
61Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~138 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.80.1
53Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 52% dry → 36% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.2
53Augmentation condition not verifiedCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10311493 (173 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH) now spans 11 parcels held by 9 owner(s) — 11 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
51Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
50Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
49Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 49% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
48Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 51% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.6
48Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 52% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 49-point cliff under stress.73.5
48Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 52% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 49-point cliff under stress.73.5
47Drought reliability cliffCACHE LA POUDRE DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 55% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.1
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10312512 (34 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.7
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10302643 (33 ac, CORN, served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.7
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10310583 (32 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.6
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac commercial parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by CACHE LA POUDRE DITCH, whose decree permits only [128]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1