BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0352

Drought reliability cliff

candidateDRY CREEK DITCH →

DRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 49% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.

Priority
48.8
composite 0–100
Raw score
78.2
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.74
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300912
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
10318
division
1
latitude
40.630877
right_id
0300912-10318.00000
longitude
-105.167802
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300912"}
decreed_uses
012345678ACWX
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
4433
structure_name
DRY CREEK DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":52,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.49,"reliability_median":0.85,"reliability_severe":0.33}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1878-04-01
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0352
record
0300912-10318.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
77Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (1986 priority) carries 1,271.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 933 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
76Basin chokepoint callerDRY CREEK DITCH has put 1460 decreed rights (40,836 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 1,460 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 39.4.39.4
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDRY CREEK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
68Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (1870 priority) carries 615.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 16 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 501 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.2
68Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (1879 priority) carries 951.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 734 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
68Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (1873 priority) carries 868.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 662 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (2000 priority) carries 1,271.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 933 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (2003 priority) carries 1,271.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 933 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (1914 priority) carries 1,256.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 933 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (1914 priority) carries 1,256.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 933 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (1873 priority) carries 856.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 657 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (2011 priority) carries 1,271.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 933 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (1881 priority) carries 954.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 734 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureDRY CREEK DITCH (1878 priority) carries 908.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 703 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.6
65Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
60Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDRY CREEK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~100 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.67.9
59Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDRY CREEK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~151 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.90.4
59Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentDRY CREEK DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~138 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.80.1
52Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10306909 (159 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by DRY CREEK DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
52Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 45% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 55-point cliff under stress.81.8
51Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 51% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.75.8
50Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
48Drought reliability cliffDRY CREEK DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 52% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 49-point cliff under stress.73.5
47Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10302590 (69 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by DRY CREEK DITCH) now spans 5 parcels held by 5 owner(s) — 5 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10305295 (47 ac, CORN, served by DRY CREEK DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.97.9
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10305002 (41 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by DRY CREEK DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 4 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10306703 (32 ac, ALFALFA, served by DRY CREEK DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 4 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10310116 (24 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by DRY CREEK DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.5
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10311329 (23 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by DRY CREEK DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 3 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.97.5
43Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10314617 (15 ac, ALFALFA, served by DRY CREEK DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.3
43Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10305526 (8 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by DRY CREEK DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.2
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by DRY CREEK DITCH, whose decree permits only [12X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.1