BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0153

Drought reliability cliff

candidateTAFT HILL DIVERSION →

TAFT HILL DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.

Priority
79.7
composite 0–100
Raw score
88.3
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact1.00
urgency0.84
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300805
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
52207
division
1
latitude
40.614292
right_id
0300805-52207.00000
longitude
-105.116242
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300805"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Conditional
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
37012
structure_name
TAFT HILL DIVERSION
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
300
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":59,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.32,"reliability_median":0.82,"reliability_severe":0.23}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1992-12-08
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0153
record
0300805-52207.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureTAFT HILL DIVERSION (1992 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentTAFT HILL DIVERSION, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
66Critical call exposureTAFT HILL DIVERSION (1878 priority) carries 909.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 704 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.6
66Critical call exposureTAFT HILL DIVERSION (2003 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
66Critical call exposureTAFT HILL DIVERSION (1914 priority) carries 1,257.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureTAFT HILL DIVERSION (1914 priority) carries 1,257.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 29 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureTAFT HILL DIVERSION (1881 priority) carries 955.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 22 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 735 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureTAFT HILL DIVERSION (1873 priority) carries 857.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 658 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
53Augmentation condition not verifiedTAFT HILL DIVERSION: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedTAFT HILL DIVERSION: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffTAFT HILL DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffTAFT HILL DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffTAFT HILL DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Drought reliability cliffTAFT HILL DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
49Drought reliability cliffTAFT HILL DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 49% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
48Drought reliability cliffTAFT HILL DIVERSION: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 52% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 49-point cliff under stress.73.5