BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0142

Drought reliability cliff

candidateTHORNTON PUMP STATION 2 →

THORNTON PUMP STATION 2: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.

Priority
64.7
composite 0–100
Raw score
88.3
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.50
urgency0.84
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300796
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
50038.50038
division
1
latitude
40.473818
right_id
0300796-50038.50038
longitude
-104.946417
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300796"}
decreed_uses
1258A
legal_status
Conditional
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
35321
structure_name
THORNTON PUMP STATION 2
structure_type
PUMP
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
50
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":59,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.32,"reliability_median":0.82,"reliability_severe":0.23}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1986-12-31
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0142
record
0300796-50038.50038 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
79Augmentation condition not verifiedTHORNTON PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
77Critical call exposureTHORNTON PUMP STATION 2 (1986 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentTHORNTON PUMP STATION 2, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
66Critical call exposureTHORNTON PUMP STATION 2 (1986 priority) carries 1,272.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 33 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.1
53Augmentation condition not verifiedTHORNTON PUMP STATION 2: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffTHORNTON PUMP STATION 2: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
43Decree-to-current-use conflictnull ac residential parcel is served by THORNTON PUMP STATION 2, whose decree permits only [X]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.62.4