BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Drought reliability cliff / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0015

Drought reliability cliff

candidateWALTER S WELTON RES →

WALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.

Priority
50.8
composite 0–100
Raw score
86.6
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.72
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.05
urgency0.83
confidence0.72
freshness0.55
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0203083
state
CO
county
JEFFERSON
admin_no
12136
division
1
latitude
39.857896
right_id
0203083-12136.00000
longitude
-105.18005
county_fips
08059
identifiers
{"wdid":"0203083"}
decreed_uses
1234568AX
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CLEAR CREEK
seniority_rank
5467
structure_name
WALTER S WELTON RES
structure_type
RESERVOIR
water_district
2
decreed_rate_cfs
null
score_components
{"method":"empirical call replay by intensity-classed years","cliff_points":58,"years_observed":37,"reliability_dry":0.47,"reliability_median":0.86,"reliability_severe":0.28}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1883-03-24
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_drought-reliability-cliff_0015
record
0203083-12136.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:drought-reliability-cliff
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
77Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1996 priority) carries 979.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 766 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.7
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentWALTER S WELTON RES, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~159 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 1 over 6 comparable seasons.98.9
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1871 priority) carries 686.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (181.8 day-eq). 518 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1865 priority) carries 646.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 9 senior caller(s); dominant caller CLEAR CR PLATTE RIVER D (168.4 day-eq). 484 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.7
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1865 priority) carries 650.9 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 9 senior caller(s); dominant caller CLEAR CR PLATTE RIVER D (168.4 day-eq). 486 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.8
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1870 priority) carries 678.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 10 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (173.8 day-eq). 512 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.2
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1872 priority) carries 762.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (181.8 day-eq). 603 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.51.4
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1874 priority) carries 949 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 746 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1877 priority) carries 949.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 746 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1878 priority) carries 949.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 746 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1881 priority) carries 949.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 746 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1883 priority) carries 949.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 746 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1886 priority) carries 949.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (368.5 day-eq). 746 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1895 priority) carries 952.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1863 priority) carries 952.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1872 priority) carries 952.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1877 priority) carries 952.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1886 priority) carries 952.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1888 priority) carries 952.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1900 priority) carries 952.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1902 priority) carries 952.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 11 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 751 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1905 priority) carries 979.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 12 senior caller(s); dominant caller FARMERS HIGHLINE CANAL (371.1 day-eq). 766 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.7
65Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1865 priority) carries 559.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 8 senior caller(s); dominant caller CLEAR CR PLATTE RIVER D (168.4 day-eq). 414 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.47.8
65Critical call exposureWALTER S WELTON RES (1864 priority) carries 559.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 8 senior caller(s); dominant caller CLEAR CR PLATTE RIVER D (168.4 day-eq). 414 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.47.8
65Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 44% dry → 26% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.87.9
53Augmentation condition not verifiedWALTER S WELTON RES: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedWALTER S WELTON RES: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedWALTER S WELTON RES: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedWALTER S WELTON RES: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedWALTER S WELTON RES: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 44% dry → 26% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.87.9
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 27% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.87.2
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.6
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.6
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.6
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 48% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.6
51Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 47% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 58-point cliff under stress.86.6
47Drought reliability cliffWALTER S WELTON RES: modeled irrigation-season reliability 89% in median years → 60% dry → 42% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.70.0