BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Season call nowcast: expected curtailment / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0935

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

candidateWELLMAN DITCH

WELLMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~135 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.

Priority
76.3
composite 0–100
Raw score
73.2
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.70
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.70
urgency0.85
confidence0.70
freshness0.90
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0600557
state
CO
county
BOULDER
admin_no
24868
division
1
latitude
40.011006
right_id
0600557-24868.00000
longitude
-105.258253
county_fips
08013
identifiers
{"wdid":"0600557"}
decreed_uses
0
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
BOULDER CREEK
seniority_rank
9684
structure_name
WELLMAN DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
6
decreed_rate_cfs
70
score_components
{"swe_pct_median":61,"condition_class":"severe","dominant_caller":"HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH","p_call_by_jun15":0,"comparable_seasons":5,"expected_curtailment_days":135}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1918-02-01
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0935
record
0600557-24868.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
82Critical call exposureWELLMAN DITCH (1918 priority) carries 834.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH (143.5 day-eq). 626 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.5
77Critical call exposureWELLMAN DITCH (1917 priority) carries 834.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 25 senior caller(s); dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH (143.5 day-eq). 626 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.5
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentWELLMAN DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~135 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller HIGHLAND SOUTH SIDE DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 5 comparable seasons.73.2
68Drought reliability cliffWELLMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 53% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 50-point cliff under stress.75.3
66Critical call exposureWELLMAN DITCH (1999 priority) carries 925.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller BOULDER WHITE ROCK DITCH (201.1 day-eq). 691 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.9
62Drought reliability cliffWELLMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 53% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 50-point cliff under stress.75.3
49Drought reliability cliffWELLMAN DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 48% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.80.4