BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Season call nowcast: expected curtailment / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0532

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

candidateCANAL 3 DITCH →

CANAL 3 DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.

Priority
62.8
composite 0–100
Raw score
82.8
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.70
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.25
urgency0.85
confidence0.70
freshness0.90
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300934
state
CO
county
WELD
admin_no
54785
division
1
latitude
40.443122
right_id
0300934-54785.00000
longitude
-104.799197
county_fips
08123
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300934"}
decreed_uses
2X
legal_status
Conditional
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
41116
structure_name
CANAL 3 DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
25
score_components
{"swe_pct_median":61,"condition_class":"severe","dominant_caller":"OGILVY DITCH","p_call_by_jun15":0,"comparable_seasons":3,"expected_curtailment_days":165}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1999-12-30
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0532
record
0300934-54785.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
88Critical caller value-at-riskCANAL 3 DITCH's observed call reaches 5943 parcels — 67,408 coverage-weighted acres, $123.0M assessed value, 3414 distinct owners — through the 57 structures it has put out of priority (285,305.5 day-equivalents, most recently 2026).100.0
80Critical call exposureCANAL 3 DITCH (1872 priority) carries 628 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (168.8 day-eq). 497 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.4
79Augmentation condition not verifiedCANAL 3 DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.85.0
76Basin chokepoint callerCANAL 3 DITCH has put 1482 decreed rights (40,763 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 285,305.5 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 45.3.45.3
75Critical call exposureCANAL 3 DITCH (2005 priority) carries 1,080 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 799 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
74Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCANAL 3 DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~127 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 6 comparable seasons.76.6
71Critical call exposureCANAL 3 DITCH (1999 priority) carries 1,080 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 799 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
71Critical call exposureCANAL 3 DITCH (1998 priority) carries 1,080 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 799 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
67Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCANAL 3 DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
66Critical call exposureCANAL 3 DITCH (1998 priority) carries 1,080 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 799 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
66Critical call exposureCANAL 3 DITCH (1873 priority) carries 674 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (168.8 day-eq). 528 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.1
66Critical call exposureCANAL 3 DITCH (1871 priority) carries 622.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (168.8 day-eq). 490 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.3
66Critical call exposureCANAL 3 DITCH (1999 priority) carries 1,080 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 799 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
65Critical call exposureCANAL 3 DITCH (1994 priority) carries 1,080 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 799 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.56.2
64Drought reliability cliffCANAL 3 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 54% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.0
63Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentCANAL 3 DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
62Drought reliability cliffCANAL 3 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
57Drought reliability cliffCANAL 3 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
57Drought reliability cliffCANAL 3 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
53Augmentation condition not verifiedCANAL 3 DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
52Drought reliability cliffCANAL 3 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffCANAL 3 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Drought reliability cliffCANAL 3 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
48Drought reliability cliffCANAL 3 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 51% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.6
48Underused water asset81.7785233 ac (WELD County, GREELEY CITY OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
47Underused water asset66.70144821 ac (WELD County, IVERSON TIM D): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
47Underused water asset64.62555327 ac (WELD County, GREELEY CITY OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
47Drought reliability cliffCANAL 3 DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 55% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.4
45Underused water asset45.76073117 ac (WELD County, UYEMURA MATTHEW J IRREVOCABLE TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
45Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10300981 (45 ac, CORN, served by CANAL 3 DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.9
45Decree-to-current-use conflict1.2522258 ac commercial parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.67.8
45Underused water asset36.27780995 ac (WELD County, GREELEY CITY OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
45Underused water asset36.21706955 ac (WELD County, 7N LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
44Underused water asset32.65988967 ac (WELD County, OLD WEST ENERGY SERVICES LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
44Underused water asset31.63723261 ac (WELD County, WEBER GARY WAYNE): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
44Underused water asset27.20723947 ac (WELD County, MADERA VALENTE): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
44Underused water asset26.39047874 ac (WELD County, SCHEOPNER TERESA L): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10309927 (20 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by CANAL 3 DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.97.4
44Decree-to-current-use conflict9.8324093 ac residential parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.63.4
44Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10206806 (19 ac, ALFALFA, served by CANAL 3 DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.88.4
44Decree-to-current-use conflict6.62002744 ac residential parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.9
44Decree-to-current-use conflict7.89746718 ac residential parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.9
43Decree-to-current-use conflict3.68408222 ac residential parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.60.6
43Underused water asset21.06847588 ac (WELD County, GREELEY CITY OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0
43Decree-to-current-use conflict3.62705952 ac residential parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.8
43Decree-to-current-use conflict3.31330813 ac residential parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.8
43Decree-to-current-use conflict4.25520594 ac residential parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.63.4
43Decree-to-current-use conflict4.53309607 ac residential parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.7
43Decree-to-current-use conflict4.38247033 ac residential parcel is served by CANAL 3 DITCH, whose decree permits only [123456789ACRWX]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.65.7
43Underused water asset19.75422178 ac (WELD County, WELD COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 6): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on CANAL 3 DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.0