BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Season call nowcast: expected curtailment / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0482

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

candidateNEW MERCER DITCH →

NEW MERCER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~127 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.

Priority
59.8
composite 0–100
Raw score
76.6
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.70
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.15
urgency0.85
confidence0.70
freshness0.90
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300913
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
8218
division
1
latitude
40.625692
right_id
0300913-8218.00000
longitude
-105.151402
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300913"}
decreed_uses
1248A
legal_status
Absolute
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
3322
structure_name
NEW MERCER DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
15
score_components
{"swe_pct_median":61,"condition_class":"severe","dominant_caller":"CANAL 3 DITCH","p_call_by_jun15":0.33,"comparable_seasons":5,"expected_curtailment_days":127}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1872-07-01
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0482
record
0300913-8218.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
85Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1998 priority) carries 1,267.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.0
79Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW MERCER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
77Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1880 priority) carries 950.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 735 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
74Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW MERCER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~151 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.67 over 6 comparable seasons.90.4
68Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1872 priority) carries 815.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.2
67Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1871 priority) carries 811.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 625 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.2
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1873 priority) carries 852.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 658 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.8
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1873 priority) carries 861.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 663 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1873 priority) carries 864.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 663 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.0
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1875 priority) carries 904.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 704 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.6
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1878 priority) carries 904.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 704 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.6
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1879 priority) carries 947.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 735 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1881 priority) carries 950.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 735 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.3
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1893 priority) carries 1,208.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 910 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.1
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1908 priority) carries 1,249.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1914 priority) carries 1,252.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1914 priority) carries 1,252.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1872 priority) carries 1,253 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1873 priority) carries 1,253 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1879 priority) carries 1,253 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1880 priority) carries 1,253 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.8
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1906 priority) carries 1,267.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.0
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1992 priority) carries 1,267.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.0
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (2011 priority) carries 1,267.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.0
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (2003 priority) carries 1,267.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 934 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.59.0
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1870 priority) carries 612.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 501 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.2
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1871 priority) carries 718.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 569 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.8
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1872 priority) carries 816 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.2
66Critical call exposureNEW MERCER DITCH (1873 priority) carries 852.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 658 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.8
63Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
58Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNEW MERCER DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~127 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.76.6
53Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW MERCER DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW MERCER DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW MERCER DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW MERCER DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
53Augmentation condition not verifiedNEW MERCER DITCH: the decree requires augmentation coverage for out-of-priority depletions, but NO plan membership is found. Verify coverage before relying on this supply — absent a plan, curtailment is immediate on the next call.59.5
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 24% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.8
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 41% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 56-point cliff under stress.83.6
50Drought reliability cliffNEW MERCER DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 45% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 55-point cliff under stress.81.8