BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Season call nowcast: expected curtailment / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0461

Season call nowcast: expected curtailment

candidateNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL

NORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.

Priority
64.6
composite 0–100
Raw score
82.8
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.70
0–1
Observed
2026-07-18
12:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.31
urgency0.85
confidence0.70
freshness0.90
novelty0.65
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300905
state
CO
county
LARIMER
admin_no
54274
division
1
latitude
40.691643
right_id
0300905-54274.00000
longitude
-105.255158
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300905"}
decreed_uses
12348A
legal_status
Absolute and Conditional
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
seniority_rank
40213
structure_name
NORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
decreed_rate_cfs
31.2
score_components
{"swe_pct_median":61,"condition_class":"severe","dominant_caller":"OGILVY DITCH","p_call_by_jun15":0,"comparable_seasons":3,"expected_curtailment_days":165}
decreed_volume_af
null
appropriation_date
1998-08-06
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_call-nowcast-exposure_0461
record
0300905-54274.00000 @ water_rights
signal
signal:call-nowcast-exposure
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-07-18 12:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1998 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
95Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1943 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
80Drought reliability cliffNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
80Drought reliability cliffNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
77Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1943 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
72Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1998 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
70Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2020 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
70Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~165 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller OGILVY DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0 over 3 comparable seasons.82.8
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1872 priority) carries 814.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 625 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.2
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1875 priority) carries 900.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 697 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.5
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1878 priority) carries 900.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 697 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.5
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1879 priority) carries 943.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 728 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1873 priority) carries 1,246.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.7
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1871 priority) carries 814.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 625 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.2
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1879 priority) carries 1,246.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.7
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1873 priority) carries 860.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 656 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1914 priority) carries 1,245.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.7
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1908 priority) carries 1,243.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.7
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1914 priority) carries 1,245.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 28 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.7
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1872 priority) carries 1,246.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.7
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1873 priority) carries 853 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 651 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.8
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1873 priority) carries 860.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 656 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1880 priority) carries 1,246.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.7
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1871 priority) carries 721.6 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 17 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 569 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.8
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1893 priority) carries 1,201.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 903 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.0
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1906 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1980 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1992 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1881 priority) carries 943.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 728 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1873 priority) carries 853 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 651 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.8
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2000 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1880 priority) carries 943.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 728 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2003 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2006 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2005 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2005 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2007 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2007 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2007 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2011 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2016 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (2018 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1992 priority) carries 1,261.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 927 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.9
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1880 priority) carries 943.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 728 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.54.2
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1872 priority) carries 816.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 625 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.2
66Critical call exposureNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL (1870 priority) carries 615.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 15 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 501 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.49.2
64Drought reliability cliffNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
62Basin chokepoint callerNORTH POUDRE SUPPLY CNL has put 1592 decreed rights (40,638 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 14,785.9 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2023. Caller Power Index 35.6.35.6