BasinWise — Dependency & Reliability Intelligencerelease v1 · genome v1 · run run_water_rights_v133 signals92,201 instances
Overview / Signals / Basin chokepoint caller / siginst_ep_wr_20260718_basin-chokepoint-caller_0050

Basin chokepoint caller

verifiedLAKE CANAL DITCH →

LAKE CANAL DITCH has put 1336 decreed rights (40,200 cfs decreed, 0 distinct owners) out of priority — 48,898 day-equivalents of administered curtailment, most recently 2026. Caller Power Index 39.1.

Priority
74.7
composite 0–100
Raw score
39.1
detector output 0–100
Confidence
0.92
0–1
Observed
2026-09-30
00:00:00
Priority componentsweights: impact .30 · urgency .25 · confidence .20 · freshness .15 · novelty .10
impact0.34
urgency1.00
confidence0.92
freshness1.00
novelty0.60
Record payloadcustomer_payload — everything the detector carried
wdid
0300922
state
CO
county
LARIMER
division
1
latitude
40.59799
longitude
-105.078783
county_fips
08069
identifiers
{"wdid":"0300922"}
water_source
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
structure_name
LAKE CANAL DITCH
structure_type
DITCH
water_district
3
score_components
{"depth":0.04,"breadth":0.34,"recency":1,"impaired_cfs":40200,"decreed_volume":0.44,"day_equivalents":48898,"impaired_owners":0,"impaired_rights":1336}
Provenance receiptexactly where this detection came from
instance id
siginst_ep_wr_20260718_basin-chokepoint-caller_0050
record
0300922 @ water_structures
signal
signal:basin-chokepoint-caller
definition
v1
genome
v1 · run run_water_rights_v1
epoch
ep_wr_20260718
lineage status
resolved
detected
2026-07-18 12:00:00
valid from
2026-09-30 00:00:00
source refs
["cdss-structures","cdss-netamounts","cdss-admin-calls","cdss-divrec","co-oit-parcels","nrcs-snotel","openet","water-court-outcomes","ditch-ledger-program"]
Co-firing signalsother detections on this record
PriSignalDetailScore
95Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1872 priority) carries 821.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.3
85Season call nowcast: expected curtailmentLAKE CANAL DITCH, 2026 season outlook: Apr 1 SWE 61% of median → severe-class year; expected curtailment ~128 of 214 season days from the basin's administration record. Dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH: P(call by Jun 15) = 0.33 over 5 comparable seasons.76.9
75Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 54% dry → 40% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 47-point cliff under stress.69.8
70Decree-to-current-use conflict48.10144502 ac commercial parcel is served by LAKE CANAL DITCH, whose decree permits only [2]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.91.3
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1873 priority) carries 1,221.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 908 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1893 priority) carries 1,176.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 23 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 884 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.57.7
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1880 priority) carries 918.7 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller LARIMER WELD IRR CANAL (200.6 day-eq). 709 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.8
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1879 priority) carries 1,221.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 908 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1872 priority) carries 1,221.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 908 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1906 priority) carries 1,236.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 908 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.5
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1992 priority) carries 1,236.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 32 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 908 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.5
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1871 priority) carries 814.8 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 19 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 625 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.2
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1873 priority) carries 830.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 637 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.5
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1880 priority) carries 1,221.4 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 30 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 908 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1873 priority) carries 821.1 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.3
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1872 priority) carries 819.3 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.3
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1908 priority) carries 1,218.2 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 27 senior caller(s); dominant caller OGILVY DITCH (236.5 day-eq). 908 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.58.3
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1872 priority) carries 821 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 20 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (192.7 day-eq). 632 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.52.3
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1875 priority) carries 872.5 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 21 senior caller(s); dominant caller NEW CACHE LA POUDRE CO DITCH (197.3 day-eq). 678 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.53.1
66Critical call exposureLAKE CANAL DITCH (1871 priority) carries 722 day-equivalents of observed call exposure from 18 senior caller(s); dominant caller CANAL 3 DITCH (188.3 day-eq). 569 season-days curtailed in the last five seasons.50.8
55Underused water asset171.65009294 ac (WELD County, HARTFORD INVESTMENTS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
53Underused water asset142.04325155 ac (WELD County, SERFER VENTURES LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
52Underused water asset133.13305871 ac (WELD County, WINDSOR TOWN OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
51Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 60-point cliff under stress.89.6
51Underused water asset126.47971114 ac (WELD County, STALEY FARM INVESTMENTS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
51Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 83% in median years → 34% dry → 24% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.8
51Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
51Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 82% in median years → 32% dry → 23% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 59-point cliff under stress.88.3
50Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 41% dry → 28% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 56-point cliff under stress.83.6
50Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10305546 (119 ac, ALFALFA, served by LAKE CANAL DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.90.4
50Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 84% in median years → 43% dry → 30% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 54-point cliff under stress.81.5
50Underused water asset102.76697329 ac (WELD County, WINDSOR TOWN OF): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Underused water asset100.92768763 ac (WELD County, HARTFORD INVESTMENTS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
49Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10300079 (105 ac, CORN, served by LAKE CANAL DITCH) now spans 5 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 5 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
49Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 85% in median years → 49% dry → 33% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 52-point cliff under stress.78.2
49Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10312577 (102 ac, GRASS_PASTURE, served by LAKE CANAL DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.90.0
49Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10310058 (100 ac, ALFALFA, served by LAKE CANAL DITCH) now spans 2 parcels held by 1 owner(s) — 2 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.90.0
48Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 51% dry → 35% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 51-point cliff under stress.76.6
48Underused water asset81.29599775 ac (WELD County, BRENIMAN FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
48Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10300946 (90 ac, CORN, served by LAKE CANAL DITCH) now spans 3 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 3 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.98.8
48Decree-to-current-use conflict1.64124889 ac residential parcel is served by LAKE CANAL DITCH, whose decree permits only [2]. Development use conflicts with the irrigation decree — a change case is likely required before water follows the project.71.5
48Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 86% in median years → 52% dry → 37% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 49-point cliff under stress.73.5
47Underused water asset70.9646294 ac (WELD County, BRENIMAN FARMS LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
47Underused water asset68.07943422 ac (WELD County, SERFER LAND VENTURES LLC): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
47Underused water asset67.8434645 ac (WELD County, RJJ LIVING TRUST): mapped irrigation ended 2020 — 6 years idle — while senior physical service on LAKE CANAL DITCH still attaches. Idle water on idle ground.77.8
47Parcel-split allocation riskIrrigated place D1-2020-10309386 (69 ac, CORN, served by LAKE CANAL DITCH) now spans 4 parcels held by 2 owner(s) — 4 parcel(s) show NO entitlement instrument of their own. The land split; the water paper didn't.100.0
47Drought reliability cliffLAKE CANAL DITCH: modeled irrigation-season reliability 87% in median years → 55% dry → 41% severe drought (2002-class replay). A 46-point cliff under stress.69.3