Change-case outcome risk
Transaction Intelligencelifecyclecandidatedetector verifiedColorado DWR / CDSS public records (public domain). Seed-mode corpora are synthetic development data, marked in provenance.What water court would actually do to this right: predicted duration and consumptive-use haircut for a hypothetical change case, from the division's historical outcomes conditioned on basin congestion (how many senior callers oppose-adjacent parties there are) and this right's lineage complexity. 'Cases like this took 29 months and kept 61% of the claim' is underwriting; a case-number list is not.
Instances
0
0 distinct records
Score range
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not firing
Fire rate
0.0e+0
Confidence
0.66
Last observed
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definition v1
Asset lineagehow this signal is derived — solid = dependency, dashed = provenance; drag to explore
Quality profile7-dimension detector quality
Score distributionno instances
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Not firing yet
No resolved instances in the active release. The detector is in the catalog and will populate as epochs materialize.
Evidenceclaims, risks, and assumptions behind this signal
Historical granted-vs-requested ratios and durations, stratified by congestion and complexity, bound the expected outcome of a new change application.
Risks
- a skilled applicant with pre-negotiated stipulations beats the base rate
- model, not legal advice — maturity candidate
Assumptions
- past division outcomes generalize to new filings
- caller count proxies likely opposition
Definition provenance
- signal id
- signal:change-case-outcome-risk
- definition
- v1 · created 2026-07-20 03:21:47
- provenance
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